NFL Sportsbook Picks – How To Play New England-Miami In Week 17

When we began the 2010 season, the NFL sportsbook betting had the New England Patriots listed as one of the major threats to win the Super Bowl and now that they’ve found cohesion and balance on both sides of the ball, all of that touting certainly seems justified.

They’ll conclude the regular season against the AFC East rival Miami Dolphins and despite having a first round bye clinched in the playoffs, they still have some kinks to work out.

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Which is largely why you can’t fall asleep on this line. Had this game taken place a week ago, the line would be a heavy double-digit number in the NFL sportsbook but since New England doesn’t have much to play for the oddsmakers are nervous that Belichik will rest his starters heading in to the post season.

I think that undersells how much New England loves beating up on the Miami Dolphins. The Patriots are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing Miami and are 7-2 SU in Gillette Stadium against them as well.

Their 2-4 ATS record in the most recent 6 matchups with the Fins shouldn’t worry people too much since there’s a shortened spread on this game and the Patriots must keep their rhythm heading in to the playoffs since the roster is generally very young.

Miami Dolphins (7-8) vs. New England Patriots (13-2)

Sunday, January 2nd — Gillette Stadium — 1:00pm EST

NFL Sportsbook Betting Line: New England -4.0 (44.0)

The Miami Dolphins began the season with very high hopes after watching Chad Henne thrive late last year, but things have been gloomy for this team overall. They’re just 2-3 SU and ATS in their last 5 games and have one of the worst scoring offenses in the league with 17.7 points per game.

That part of their resume is astounding considering Henne’s canon arm, Brandon Marshall’s presence and the inclusion of a backfield toting Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams.

The biggest mistake for Miami is trying to turn in to a passing team too soon. They are still in need of a reliable number two receiver and though Marshall has had another great season, he’s their only passing threat.

New England is caught in a bind with this game particularly because we all remember what happened to Wes Welker last year (he tore his ACL in the final week of the regular season), so the Patriots will want to play it safe in that regard.

While Welker might get rest, the first round bye is enough time to lick their wounds and this young defense still has plenty of holes to fix to give them better value in the futures market of the NFL sportsbook.

The Patriots rank just 30th in passing defense and while youth is a big reason for that, they’ll use this matchup to fine tune their defense. Don’t worry too much about Brady and company sitting too long in this game, especially since the team does such a great job or protecting him in the first place.

As is always the case, the Patriots will rotate a ton of players in and out of their offense which will keep everyone fresh even when this game is finished.

Even if New England does end up sitting some people in the second half, that doesn’t mean that they won’t blow up the scoreboard against a very questionable defense from Miami. Expect them to take the win out of Miami’s sails, send them in to sub-500 hell and cap their season with a win in the NFL sportsbook as they prepare for the playoffs.

Furious NFL Sportsbook Betting Pick – New England -4.0 (UNDER)

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