NFL Sportsbook Action – Eagles vs 49ers

Sportsbook customers know that the Philadelphia Eagles are about to go through yet another switch at the quarterback position. On Sunday they travel to the west coast to take on the San Francisco 49ers, still looking for their first win, in NFL action that is slated to begin at 8:20 PM ET at Candlestick Park (natural turf) in San Francisco. The game will be televised nationwide on NBC. In the sportsbook line for this game, the Niners are favored by three points, with the total on the game posted at 38 points.

Philadelphia Eagles (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (0-4 SU, 2-2 ATS)

Live at Candlestick Park
San Francisco, CA
Sunday, October 10 –  8:20 PM ET
TV:  NBC

NFL Sportsbook Odds:
San Francisco -3
Philadelphia +3
Total 38

Here are some of the sportsbook trends as they impact our football betting prediction on this game:

• Philadelphia has played four of its last six games UNDER the total
• Philadelphia has lost four of its last six games SU
• Philadelphia has won eight of its last 12 games SU
• Philadelphia has covered one of its last seven games
• Philadelphia has won five of its last seven road games SU
• San Francisco has played seven of its last ten games UNDER the total
• San Francisco has lost four of its last five games SU
• San Francisco is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five home games
• San Francisco has played four of its last five home games UNDER the total
• San Francisco has won four of its last five home games SU

Key stats for Philadelphia — Michael Vick has averaged 8.3 yards an attempt, throwing six TD passes without an interception. He is also the Eagles’ second leading rusher with 187 yards. The team’s leading rusher and receiver is LeSean McCoy, with 273 yards, 5.5 yards per carry and 23 catches. The reason we mention all of this is because neither Vick nor McCoy is expected to make the start in the game against the Niners, and that will undoubtedly impact the way we play this game against the sportsbook.

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Key stats for San Francisco — The Niners, who professed to be a run-first offense, have thrown 151 passes this season – all of them by Alex Smith – while running the ball only 83 times. Frank Gore is the only operative running back, and he has gained 270 yards on the ground. The 49ers have converted only 30% of their third down conversions, a very poor figure. Opponents have completed 67% of their passes against them compared with just 52% permitted by Philadelphia.

Here are the head-to-head betting trends as they involve the sportsbook odds on this game:

• Five of the last six meetings have gone OVER the total
• Philadelphia has won five of the last six meetings SU
• Philadelphia has won five of the last seven meetings SU as the road team
• Five of the last seven meetings in San Francisco have gone OVER the total

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As of this writing, it would seem very unlikely that Michael Vick, who suffered the rib injury diving for the end zone against the Redskins last week, will be making this start, and LeSean McCoy also has a cracked rib. It’s not the Kevin Kolb is such a fish out of water running the Eagles’ west coast attack, but from what he has shown, there is very much an "ordinary" quality to it, which certainly was not the case with Vick, who threatened the defense in other ways. Along with many other sportsbook bettors, I’m also not sure the team has a lot of faith in Kolb’s ability to function and win. Mike Bell, who was with the Saints last year, will probably start at running back in McCoy’s place. He’s gained 20 yards on 12 carries so far.

If I were part of the 49er management, I would use this game as a gauge to determine whether I wanted to continue with Mike Singletary as my head coach. From the standpoint of sportsbook wagering, this seems to be a perfect setup for him; his team played better last week, and should have won the game. They have the kind of defense that will not be overwhelmed by a guy like Kolb, and they are thankful that they are seeing a team that has even greater offensive line problems than they do. Andy Reid’s shakeup seemed to work when he went with Vick. Now he has to go the other way. Singletary has shaken things up with a new offensive coordinator, and maybe now they’ll get closer to establishing an offensive identity. Either way, it is "put up or shut up" time for this San Francisco team, and we’re looking for them to rise to the occasion as three-point favorites in the sportsbook betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY:  SAN FRANCISCO -3 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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