NFL Sportsbook – Chiefs Lay Big Number to Broncos

In the NFL sportsbook this week, the AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs try to stay ahead of San Diego, but they are laying a big number at home as they play host to the Denver Broncos. With the Broncos more or less out of the playoff picture, they can only play the role of "spoiler." The game is slated for a 1 PM ET kickoff on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium (natural turf) in Kansas City. In the NFL sportsbook odds that have been posted for this game, the Chiefs are a nine-point favorite, with the over-under at 48.5 points.

Denver Broncos (3-8 SU & ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-4 SU & ATS)
Live at Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City, MO
Sunday, December 5 — 1 PM ET
TV:   CBS

NFL Sportsbook Odds:

Kansas City -9
Denver +9
Total  48.5

Here are some of the trends as they impact our NFL sportsbook play on this game:

·         Denver has lost six of its last seven games SU
·         Denver has covered one of its last seven games
·         Denver has played six of its last eight games OVER the total
·         Denver has played six of its last nine road games OVER the total
·         Denver has lost six of its last seven road games SU
·         Denver has covered one of its last five road games
·         Kansas City has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
·         Kansas City has won four of its last six games SU
·         Kansas City has lost 18 of its last 25 home games SU

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Some of the drama in this game may involve whether Todd Haley is going to shake the hand of Denver coach Josh McDaniels at the conclusion of the game. That didn’t happen after the 49-29 beating the Broncos administered three weeks ago. That snub might have happened for several reasons – the Broncos were gloating on the sideline slate in the game, and McDaniels had left many of his starters in when the decision was no longer in doubt. Another factor might have been the suspicion about McDaniels having the practices of other teams videotaped; who knows if that occurred with the Chiefs.

Haley later apologized for shaking his finger at McDaniels, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t want to get some payback for that earlier defeat. The Broncos were coming off four straight losses and have lost a couple of games since, and McDaniels would not be a good bet in the NFL sportsbook to last longer than Haley will in his job.

Here are some of the head-to-head NFL sportsbook trends with regard to our prediction:

·         Denver has won five of the last seven meetings SU
·         Kansas City has won eight of the last eleven meetings SU as the home team
·         Five of the last six meetings in Kansas City have gone OVER the total

Kansas City warmed up last week against Seattle, amassing 503 yards of offense and winning by 18 points in a difficult venue to play at (Qwest Field). The skill people are most definitely performing. Matt Cassel has 22 TD passes with just four interceptions (and make that 18 and one, respectively, in the last seven games). Jamaal Charles is averaging 6.3 yards a carry. Dwayne Bowe has caught a TD pass in seven straight games, has 14 for the year, and had thirteen receptions both in the first meeting with the bronco sand last week in Seattle.  Under normal circumstances, Denver simply doesn’t have enough defense to handle all this, and that may not be reflected enough in the NFL sportsbook numbers. Furthermore, the Broncos have converted just eleven of 52 on third down over the last five games. They don’t have enough to trade points right now, and they won’t. Kansas City will win this by double digits, making them our NFL sportsbook play, and Haley WILL shake McDaniels’ hand after the game. Let’s hope, for Josh’s sake, that won’t be the last time he walks off the field as an NFL coach. 

JAY’S PLAY:  KANSAS CITY -9 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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