NFL Sports Book Odds – Critical Matchup for Chargers and Niners

Analysts of the NFL sports book odds know that both the San Diego Chargers and San Francisco 49ers are within striking range of the lead in their respective divisions, so this is a critical game for both of them on Thursday night at Qualcomm Stadium (natural turf) in San Diego.

The Chargers are a game behind Kansas City, who they beat last week, and the Niners are a game in back of both Seattle (who THEY beat last week) and St. Louis. The Chargers are a nine-point favorite in the NFL sports book odds, with the total on the game listed at 44.5 points.

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NFL Sports Book Odds

San Francisco 49ers (5-8 SU, 6-7 ATS) at San Diego Chargers (7-6 SU & ATS)

Live at Qualcomm Stadium

San Diego, CA

Thursday, December 16 — 8:20 PM ET

TV:  NFL Network 

NFL Sports Book Odds:

San Diego  -9

San Francisco  +9

Total  44.5

Here are some of the trends as they impact the NFL sports book odds on this game:

• San Francisco has won four of its last six games SU
• San Francisco has lost eleven of its last 13 road games SU
• San Francisco is 3-6-1 ATS in its last ten road games
• San Diego has won five of its last six games SU
• San Diego has played four of its last five home games UNDER the total
• San Diego has won ten of its last 13 home games SU

The Chargers took advantage of the absence of Matt Cassel from the Kansas City lineup last week, getting revenge for its opening game loss to the Chiefs against Brodie Croyle, who has never won a game as an NFL starter. The 31-0 win showed San Diego in its best form all year, as the Bolts held the Chiefs to just 67 yards of total offense. As we have referenced before, San Diego is 2nd in the NFL in offense, and 1st in defense, yet the team is still struggling with winning the AFC’s weakest division. They are in the midst of their customary late-season drive, winning five of their last six, both straight-up and in the NFL sports book odds. But some of the Jekyll-and-Hyde nature in them resurfaced two weeks ago when they laid down for the Oakland Raiders, when they had a golden opportunity before them.

Here are the head-to-head football betting trends that have a bearing on NFL sports book odds:

• Six of the last eight meetings have gone OVER the total
• San Francisco has won six of the last eight meetings SU

The Chargers have a chance to close this season out with a 10-6 record, which might be good enough to win the AFC West, since Kansas City has to play St. Louis, Tennessee and Oakland, none of which will be a walk in the park for them. When you outgain teams the way they do, every game, the way it looks on paper, should be easy. That’s why they are laying this many in the NFL sports book odds. Phillip Rivers was pretty sharp last week, with 18-for-24 and 226 yards, and Ryan Mathews came back to the lineup with 65 yards in 16 carries. Antonio Gates, who sat out last week, may be out again, and if so, he joins Patrick Crayton and Vincent Jackson there.

It sometimes makes us cringe when we acknowledge strong play on the part of Niners’ QB Alex Smith, because we realize it is often short-lived. But as he was re-inserted into the lineup against Seattle, he was 17-of-27 for 255 yards and three TD’s, with a 130.9 passer rating. It’s been "so far, so good" for Bryan Westbrook, who had 136 yards on the ground three weeks ago against Arizona and 87 yards receiving last Sunday against the Seahawks. San Francisco’s defense (11th overall) is good enough to harass a team that is playing short-handed. And they’ve covered nine of their last eleven getting points. We’ll take points with San Francisco in the NFL sports book odds.

JAY’S PLAY:  SAN FRANCISCO +9 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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