NFL Sneak Peek – The Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons certainly had a lot of ground to make up last season, and they did it. Winning seven of their last nine games, including three victories over playoff teams, to snatch a wild card berth with an 11-5 record (9-7 ATS). They did it the old-fashioned way, by pounding the ball on the ground and minimizing mistakes. Coach Mike Smith, entering his second season, would like to see that same formula continue, with a better defense.

Do the Falcons have a shot to win a very competitive division?

Let’s take a look at the numbers:

BetOnline Sportsbook Odds

To Win NFC South

New Orleans Saints +190

Carolina Panthers +230

ATLANTA FALCONS +220

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +450

To Win Super Bowl: +2200

To Win NFC title: +1000

To Reach Conference title game: +450

Over 8.5 wins -115

Under 8.5 wins -115

The Falcons franchise was an absolute shambles when Mike Smith took over. Not only was Michael Vick out of the picture, but Bobby Petrino had put this team through a very embarrassing episode when he bailed to coach at Arkansas. Smith had never been a head coach before, but he took hold of the situation, implemented his philosophy, didn’t flinch on installing rookie Matt Ryan as the quarterback from day one, and let the chips fall where they may. The final result was an 11-5 season, good for second place in the NFC South and a wild card spot.

Ryan threw a TD pass on his first attempt and never looked back. He completed 61% of his passes for 3440 yards, and was sacked only 17 times in 16 games. That’s a tribute to the play of the offensive line, which remains intact. That line also opened up the kind of holes that allowed Smith to employ the same kind of ground attack that characterized the Jacksonville teams where he was an assistant. Like the Jaguars, the Falcons had a "Thunder-and-Lightning" combo. The big free agent prize of the off-season, it turned out, was Michael Turner, who had served as LaDanian Tomlinson’s understudy in San Diego but came out from behind LT’s shadow in a big way, rambling for 1699 yards to finish second in the league behind Adrian Peterson. His 17 rushing TD’s led the NFL. He certainly has the makings of a great one if he stays healthy. His backfield partner, the "Lightning" guy, is Jerious Norwood, who is pure speed and ran for 489 yards, with 338 more on receptions. That latter stat is important because Turner caught only six passes last year. Norwood is a big play guy, and is a threat to take it coast-to-coast on any play.

Atlanta has balance in the offense. Roddy White has really emerged in his last couple of seasons. Last year was his best, as he snagged 88 balls for 1382 yards. he looks like he can only get better. Michael Jenkins, the former Ohio State star, had his best season as a pro with 50 receptions and a 15.5-yard average. Harry Douglas, the third wideout who caught just 23 passes last year, is considered someone with significant upside, so we’ll see if he’s used a lot more. Ryan also has a notable short range option, as Tony Gonzalez, one of the best tight ends in NFL history, comes to Atlanta from Kansas City and still has plenty left (96 catches, 1058 yards in ’08). This offense will be harder to deal with this season.

The defense has undergone some personnel turnover. Only eight teams gave up more yards than the Falcons, and only Detroit, Kansas City, St. Louis and Denver allowed more yards per rush. Gone are veterans like Lawyer Milloy and Keith Brookings, as well as Michael Boley, who went to the New York Giants. Mike Peterson, a 33-year-old outside linebacker Smith coached while in Jacksonville, was brought aboard, and the first-round draft choice was a potential run-stuffer, Peria Jerry of Ole Miss.

John Abraham, the great defensive end, had 16 sacks last season, and it would sure be nice if there was someone else who could rush the passer. Chauncey Davis, who is listed on the depth chart as Abraham’s backup, was second on the team with four sacks. Lots of growth is expected from Curtis Lofton, the second-round pick from Oklahoma who had 67 solo tackles as a rookie while starting at middle linebacker. William Moore of Missouri, one of the best safeties in this year’s draft, is expected to start at strong safety, and he could be a defensive rookie of the year candidate.

Atlanta has one of the best punt coverage units in the league, and that can be attributed to punter Michael Koenen, who averaged almost 41 yards a kick and placed 25 of his punts inside the 20-yard line. The Falcons allowed a total of 49 punt return yards, the lowest in NFL history.

The Falcons are a team that needs to demonstrate that it has improved on defense, and has a tougher schedule. They face New England, Dallas and the Giants on the road, and also play host to Philadelphia and Miami. Yet this is a team that can get it done, because they can control the line of scrimmage on offense. They could well be worth a play at +220 in the NFC South in the BetOnline NFL football futures odds, and should go OVER 8.5 wins, which is priced at -115 at BetOnline.