NFL Season Review and a Look Ahead to Next Year

NFL: Season Betting Roundup & Look Ahead

With the NFC’s 30-21 win over the AFC in Sunday’s Pro Bowl, the NFL betting season has officially ended. Before heading off for different pastures until pigskin handicapping heats up in the summer, let’s take stock of the season that was and take a look ahead to next year’s campaign.

Public wins in Super Bowl

Pittsburgh won SB XLIII 27-23, but it was Arizona that covered for the millions of bettors on the big game. The Cardinals were the choice of about 60% of bettors that wagered on the 6.5-point spread, meaning public players took sportsbooks for a ride in the grand finale.

Don’t worry about oddsmakers

While an unbalanced ledger on the Super Bowl spread wasn’t the best for books, they made up for it on the over/under last season. Don’t mess with oddsmakers on totals: Teams combined to play over the number 161 times compared with 159 for the under. Looks like the guys setting the lines had a field day when it was all said and done.

Road warriors

The biggest winners ATS were away teams, which went an impressive 183-140-9 against the number last season, good for a 56.7% clip. Oddsmakers seemed to particularly underestimate road underdogs, which finished 134-98-7 ATS to cash almost 58% of the time for bettors who rode the trend.

Money defense

Bettors that made money last season likely did so on the backs of the NFL’s best defensive teams. Tennessee (13-3, 12-4 ATS) held opponents to only 14.6 points per game and were tied for the best record against the spread along with the N.Y. Giants (12-4, 12-4 ATS) and Baltimore (11-5, 12-4 ATS) – both defensive juggernauts.

All of the above teams finished with a point differential of at least +8.3, as the only two teams among the league leaders on the moneylist that weren’t defensive powerhouses were New Orleans (8-8, 10-5-1 ATS) and Arizona (9-7, 9-7 ATS).

Countdown to Super Bowl XLIV

Will the Steelers repeat and win their seventh championship? Oddsmakers think the public is behind Pittsburgh, listing the Steel Curtain as early +900 co-favorites to win SB XLIV.

Handicapping the AFC is about accounting for this season’s relative underachievers. To be fair to New England (11-5, 9-7 ATS), it hardly let backers down while playing all of two possessions without Tom Brady. The Patriots are knotted with the Steelers at +900 to win it all a year from now, and should be back at the top of the conference with Brady under center and the defense up and running.

San Diego (+1200) masked a mediocre season by making the playoffs at the last minute and by upsetting Indianapolis (+1000) in the AFC wildcard round. The Colts had the opposite reality of the Bolts (8-8, 7-8-1 ATS); Indy (12-4, 8-7-1 ATS) rolled into the postseason smelling like a rose only to find itself holding the bag at the hands of San Diego for the second year in a row.

Whether better days are in store for either contender depends on a multitude of factors. Can LaDainian Tomlinson bounce back after an injury-plagued season? Is Shawn Merriman ready to go? When is Peyton Manning going to regress and take the Colts down with him?

In the NFC, Arizona (+2500) has a lot to prove despite its profitable run to the Super Bowl. The Cards scored one more point than they allowed last season, and that doesn’t say much considering their division is the NFC West. Kurt Warner is getting old, and Anquan Boldin might not be back to keep the heat off Larry Fitzgerald. All of these factors could make Arizona fade bait come kickoff in September.

Statistically, the top teams in the conference were New York (+1200) and Philadelphia (+1600), and they should be back at the top because of their respective defenses. Ahead of both the Giants and Eagles on the SB XLIV odds list is Dallas (+1000), which went 9-7 SU and 7-9 ATS after Tony Romo missed three games with a broken finger.

The sleeper in the senior conference comes from the NFC North, where Minnesota (+1800) is poised to repeat as division champions. Adrian Peterson is the real thing and the Vikings have a playoff game under their belt after falling to the Eagles. Pushing Minny over the top is its schedule; the Vikes are set to play the league’s softest slate of games based on last season’s records.