NFL Saturday Baltimore vs Dallas

Dallas is now, officially the “team that nobody wants to play in January”. You know which team I don’t want to play in January? Indianapolis and Pittsburgh! Why are the Cowboys that team? First of all it’s a stupid term. By the time we’ve shaken each conference down to its six best teams, do you really want to play ANY of those teams in January?

So why are people suddenly ranting and raving about the Cowboys? Well, they just laid down a huge beat down of the Giants amidst a 4-1 SU record that also saw them clear the sports betting line four times out of five in the last five weeks. Suddenly their defense has come alive, and their always potent offense has come to life.

However, Baltimore’s defense lays in wait this Saturday when the NFL begins to run their Saturday night schedule on the betting public. Baltimore’s defense ranks third in the league in points against, allowing only 15.2. They created five turnovers in last weekend’s debacle against Pittsburgh, but still couldn’t get the win. Why is that?

NFL Betting Trends

-Baltimore is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games

-Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road

-Baltimore is 4-8 SU in their last 12 games on the road

-Dallas is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games

-Dallas is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home

-total has gone OVER in four Baltimore’s last five games on the road

The reason for Baltimore’s struggles is rooted in their offense. Joe Flacco has been receiving the praise of the media throughout the season, but that’s more because he doesn’t suck as much as we thought he would. The truth? He’s only had four games where he’s topped 200 passing yards.

On top of that, when a 89 year-old Derrick Mason is your biggest receiving threat, then you might understand why. Baltimore’s equally troubling committee backfield has had to carry this offense. But when they run in to a stiff defense, like they did with Pittsburgh, Baltimore can’t hope to put points on the board.

Baltimore Ravens (9-5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (9-5)

Saturday, December 20th — Texas Stadium, Dallas — 8:15pm EST

NFL Betting Line: Dallas -4 (39)

Tashard Choice (or Taster’s Choice as I like to call him) has been a suitably effective backfield threat for the Cowboys, normalizing any loss that Dallas had when Marion Barber’s toes started giving him and the Dallas betting faithful headaches. Despite Terrell Owens becoming chirpy yet again, Dallas is on a steam rolling rampage at the moment and needs a win over Baltimore to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Baltimore needs the same help, but are you really going to instill your betting dollars on a team that can’t put up points on the board unless their premier safety is scoring touchdowns? That’s not a safe bet in the least.

NFL Free Pick: Dallas -4 (OVER)