NFL QB Props – Matt Cassel vs. The Field

Before the 2008 season, Matt Cassel had not started a football game since high school. Of course, that’s not because he wasn’t good enough; it’s because he wasn’t quite good enough to unseat two Heisman Trophy winners (Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart) and one two-time Super Bowl MVP (Tom Brady). All of that changed in the opening game of the season, when Brady went down – and out – with a knee injury that pressed Cassel into service right away.

All Cassel did was pass for 3693 yards and 21 touchdowns, almost leading the Pats to the playoffs. He also became the fifth quarterback in history to throw for 400 or more yards in consecutive games, and then he got "franchised" by the Patriots, which resulted in a $14 million deal, the largest in one year for an offensive player – EVER – proving once again that there is such a dearth in real quarterback talent in the NFL that teams are willing to throw out big money to anyone who can demonstrate ability.

Cassel was then traded to Kansas City and wound up signing a six-year deal for $63 million. With New England he had a strong supporting staff, a team that could play defense, and a top-flight coaching staff. Now he must do his thing in a different atmosphere, as the Chiefs are not well-equipped in the offensive line, and have a rookie head coach in Todd Haley. Kansas City is also lacking in receiving talent, so we are certainly going to find out the truth about Cassel, who will obviously be asked to more, especially if Larry Johnson does not come up big. He also hasn’t been very impressive so far this pre-season, leaving Chiefs fans a little uneasy to say the least.

That having been said, let’s do some comparisons, as they relate to propositions in the BetOnline NFL betting odds:

CASSEL VS ROETHLISBERGER

Matt Cassel ~ Chiefs +3½ TD Passes -120

Ben Roethlisberger ~ Steelers -3½ TD Passes -120

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As I mentioned when I analyzed this from Big Ben’s angle, his high in TD passes is 32, but he has not thrown for more than 18 touchdowns in any other year. If Mike Tomlin gets his wish, Roethlisberger won’t have to throw a lot of TD passes to get the Steelers into the end zone. CASSEL (+3.5, -120)

CASSEL VS PALMER

Matt Cassel ~ Chiefs +4½ TD Passes -120

Carson Palmer ~ Bengals -4½ TD Passes -120

Palmer has had 32, 28 and 26 touchdowns in consecutive seasons when he’s been healthy. That’s the operative word – healthy. He missed 12 games last year and has already been taken out of a game with a bad ankle. Still, we know he can bust out and light up the board. I’m not all that high on Cassel’s ability to cross the goal line that much with his new team. Palmer rates a slight edge over his former understudy. Hey, Cassel should at least beat out Matt Leinart, right? PALMER (-4.5, -120)

CASSEL VS RIVERS

Matt Cassel ~ Chiefs +8½ TD Passes -130

Philip Rivers ~ Chargers -8½ TD Passes -110

It looks like Rivers’ numbers jumped way up last season, and that was probably the result of having to depend on the air game more to compensate for a substandard year on the part of LaDanian Tomlinson. I’m not convinced L.T. is about to make a big comeback, so I would expect that Rivers should be close to 25-28 TD’s. I’d be wiling to take a small shot that Cassel could stay within that number, because he’s got a lot of room.

CASSEL VS McNABB

Matt Cassel ~ Chiefs +2½ TD Passes -120

Donovan McNabb ~ Eagles -2½ TD Passes -120

I know that the possibility exists for Cassel to run up some gratuitous stats, but at the risk of repeating ourselves, he is going to working with an ordinary offensive line, with a below-average crew of receivers. Donovan McNabb may not be as good as some people think, but he has demonstrated the ability to improvise with wide receivers that are nothing special, and this season he may have more offensive weaponry at his disposal than he has in a long time. McNABB (-2.5, -120)

CASSEL VS CUTLER

Matt Cassel ~ Chiefs +5 TD Passes -120

Jay Cutler ~ Bears -5 TD Passes -120

If new Kansas City coach Todd Haley’s attitude is to be very aggressive in throwing the ball, I might even consider Cassel in a straight-up proposition with Cutler. This is not a dig at Cutler, who will improve the efficiency of the bears passing game, but if Devon Hester is, in effect, your top wideout. I think you’re going to be disappointed with the end result. CASSEL (+5, -120)

CASSEL VS ROMO

Matt Cassel ~ Chiefs +8½ TD Passes -120

Tony Romo ~ Cowboys -8½ TD Passes -120

Here a lot will depend on which receiver can stay healthy for Romo to complement Roy Williams, and whether Williams himself will be any good. Still, with Jason Witten and a healthy (we hope) Felix Jones, we think Romo should be able to put slap together some numbers again. After all, he’s a numbers guy. Now he’s got to win a playoff game. ROMO (-8.5, -120)

CASSEL VS RODGERS

Matt Cassel ~ Chiefs +7½ TD Passes -120

Aaron Rodgers ~ Packers -7½ TD Passes -120

Aaron Rodgers inherited the Green Bay Packers quarterback under the most difficult of circumstances as it came in the wake of a Brett Favre soap opera, and he passed for 4038 yards with 28 TD’s. He’s got receivers who are better after the catch than almost anybody’s, with the possible exception of Arizona’s, and those guys are going to make enough plays for him. RODGERS (-7.5, -120)

CASSEL VS RYAN

Matt Cassel ~ Chiefs +2 TD Passes -120

Matt Ryan ~ Falcons -2 TD Passes -120

This year Matt Ryan gets the tight end who could have belonged to Matt Cassel, and that’s Tony Gonzalez. That’s obviously a good thing for Atlanta. However, I still see the Falcons sticking to what put them in good stead last season, which was using the running game as a staple. Cassel is working with a head coach who wanted to throw the ball all over the place with Arizona, when he was their offensive coordinator. Theoretically, the Chiefs should have a big-league running game with Larry Johnson, but I just wonder if he’s going to stop trying when things continue to go bad in the second half of the season. RYAN (-2, -120)

CASSEL VS WARNER

Matt Cassel ~ Chiefs +6½ TD Passes -120

Kurt Warner ~ Cardinals -6½ TD Passes -120

I expect that Cassel will be made to run for his life in a way that Kurt Warner won’t. Or let’s out it this way – if someone on the Arizona line makes Warner do that, he is going to be out of a job. Warner will have a shot to make a lot more big plays with his trio of wide receivers, all of whom accounted for over a thousand yards last year. Cassel’s best outlet is Dwayne Bowe, who would probably be the fourth receiver with the Cards. WARNER (-6.5, -120)