NFL Props – A Historic Duel Between Johnson and Jones-Drew?

People taking a look at the NFL props in the Monday night game between the Tennessee Titans and the host Jacksonville Jaguars are well aware that Jack Del Rio’s game plan for the Jags always involves establishing a running game, and so it stands to reason that Maurice Jones-Drew is going to be a key figure in this particular meeting, which is scheduled to kick off at 8:30 PM ET at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium (natural turf) and televised by ESPN. The Titans are the three-point favorites in the game, which the over-under posted at 45.5 points. A number of rushing yards from Jones-Drew has been established in the NFL props.

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Tennessee Titans (3-2 SU & ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2 SU & ATS)
Live at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium
Monday, October 18 –  8:30 PM ET
TV:  ESPN

MNF Odds:
Tennessee -3
Jacksonville +3
Total 45.5

All of these Monday Night NFL props are graded on a scale of 1-4 stars:

CHRIS JOHNSON – TOTAL RUSHING YARDS   
Over  113½  Yards        -115
Under  113½  Yards       -115

With six touchdowns in five games, Johnson is finding the end zone at a little higher rate than he did last season. Otherwise, it’s probably not fair to compare anything he has done to is dream year of 2009, when he ran for 2006 yards, and caught 50 passes for 503 more. Johnson averages 97 yards a game, and in his four games against AFC South rival Jacksonville, he’s only had one performance where he chalked up more than a hundred yards. But that was by far his career high, and his only career 200-yard game, last November, as 228 yards keyed a 30-13 Tennessee win, which featured touchdown runs of 89 and 52 yards. Relative to this Monday night NFL prop, in his last 26 games, Johnson has rushed for 114 yards or more a total of fifteen times. For his career, he’s averaged 103 yards a contest, and we know that he is 100% capable of going over this figure at any time, even on a day (or night, as it were) that he is not at his best. It is not expected that he will be at his best on Monday night, as he is dealing with a thigh injury.

JAY’S PLAY: OVER 113.5 YARDS (-115) **

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MAURICE JONES DREW – TOTAL RUSHING YARDS    
Over  84½  Yards          -115
Under  84½  Yards        -115

Jones-Drew was one-half of the very spectacular matchup last year between the Jags and Titans, where both he and Chris Johnson had two TD runs of 50 yards or more, which was the first time in NFL history that had happened. He had 177 yards in that game, but in only six of his 14 games since then has he exceeded the number that is put forth in this NFL prop. It is probably fair to say that the defensive staff at Tennessee is going to put together a game plan that will place more people toward the line of scrimmage. It will be incumbent upon Jacksonville quarterback David Garrard to exploit that, and maybe he is more capable of doing it than Vince Young on the other side.

JAY’S PLAY:  UNDER 84.5 *

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MAURICE JONES DREW – TOTAL RECEPTIONS
Over  2½  Receptions    +120
Under  2½  Receptions -150

One of the things that has become a concern for Jones-Drew is his wrist, which was sprained last week against Buffalo, and which has to have affected him throughout the week. His hand was badly swollen and he missed some practice time, but of course when you are an NFL player you have to play through the pain, and so there will be some anti-inflammatory medication to bring down the swelling and he will suit up for this game. In his own words, "You’ve got to be a tough guy at some point."

Jones-Drew has often been a useful pass-catcher, which is what brings interest to this NFL prop. In his four seasons in the league up until now he has snared 46, 40, 62 and 53 passes. This season, his numbers in that area have been down, as he’s had ten catches for 58 yards. Rashad Jennings, the seventh-round draft pick last year out of Liberty, has been giving more of that responsibility, with eight receptions. In the Jags’ low-tech offense, that’s a lot. The wrist injury is more likely to affect the ability of Jones-Drew to catch passes than it would be for him to carry the ball.

JAY’S PLAY: UNDER 2.5 RECEPTIONS (-150) **

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