NFL Props – Will the Rodgers-Cutler Shootout Materialize?

Those NFL betting proposition bettors are wondering whether the Aaron Rodgers-Jay Cutler shootout is going to materialize on Monday Night Football (yes, we capitalize it, because it’s an institution).

When some long-time fans think of the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers, they visualize battles in the mud, and maybe even three or four yards and cloud of dust.

But these teams are filling the air with footballs these days, and so we are forced to consider precisely how much they are going to do that in this game, which is slated to get underway at 8:20 PM ET at Soldier Field (natural turf) in Chicago.

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Among many of the odds available for proposition betting, the over-under on Aaron Rodgers’ passing yardage is placed at 263.5.

Let’s take a look at some of the props available for Monday night’s game, and we will grade our plays on a scale of 1-4 stars:

AARON RODGERS – TOTAL PASSING YARDS

Over 263½ Yards -155

Under 263½ Yards +125

No disrespect to Rodgers, but he’s topped this figure only once in the last seven regular season games. I think he’s perfectly capable of topping it, but will he? Will Rodgers sustain a lot of pressure coming from the Bears’ pass rush?

I’m a little torn here, because on the one hand I can see Rodgers throwing the ball all over the field, but on the other, I know that 263.5 is a big number to reach. I’d rather go for the price here in 6this proposition betting feature.

JAY’S PLAY: UNDER 263.5 (+125) *

AARON RODGERS – TOTAL COMPLETIONS

Over 22½ Completions -135

Under 22½ Completions +105

I think it altogether possible for Rodgers to miss his yardage mark but still exceeded this number for completions. Such are the subtleties of proposition betting. I’m figuring he is going to throw it up there 40 times at a minimum, because his running game won’t be working all that well.

When Ryan Grant first emerged as a rushing threat, he provided a great balance for then-quarterback Brett Favre, but Jackson isn’t the kind of guy who is going to eating up chunks of yardage from the line of scrimmage like Grant did. I don’t think the Packers are all that uncomfortable with an offensive game that is all passing anyway.

JAY’S PLAY: OVER 22.5 (-135) ***

BRANDON JACKSON – TOTAL RUSHING YARDS

Over 47½ Yards -115

Under 47½ Yards -115

I don’t know; I’m just not a big believer in Brandon Jackson. I remember when he had the opportunity to win the job as starting tailback for the Packers as a rookie, and he couldn’t rise to the occasion. Instead, it was Grant , but before that the lack of a running game was considered a true impediment to the Packers’ quest for a playoff spot.

With Grant, they were a team that got to within a whisker of the Super Bowl. Jackson got his chance to start last week against Buffalo, and he averaged 2.6 yards a rush. It’s not that 47.5 yards is such a big total, but unless Green Bay really tries hard to establish a running game, I feel a little more secure on the lower end of this betting proposition.

JAY’S PLAY: UNDER 47.5 (-115) **

JERMICHAEL FINLEY – TOTAL RECEPTIONS

Over 4½ Receptions -130

Under 4½ Receptions +100

Finley, a third-year player, was the darling coming out of training camp. So far – four receptions in each game, with an average of 18.8 yards a catch. I expect that as he gets pressure from the Chicago pass rush, Rodgers finds Finley as his short range target, so statistically speaking, I’m looking for a big game from him.

JAY’S PLAY: OVER 4.5 (-130) ***

JAY CUTLER – TOTAL PASSING YARDS

Over 263½ Yards -115

Under 263½ Yards -115

So far for Cutler, it’s 372 and 277 yards in his two games. As long as the weather is okay (and they’re forecasting no rain and low winds) he’ll be trying to work that Mike Martz offense, which calls for some down-the-field passing, along with checkdowns and designed plays to his versatile back.

We’ll get to that in a moment. The Packer secondary is opportunistic (which is why I favor Cutler, who was picked off six times by the Pack last year, throwing an interception, at -230 in proposition betting), but they can be burned too.

WILL JAY CUTLER THROW AN INTERCEPTION ?

Yes -230

No +180

We just covered it.

JAY’S PLAY: YES (-230) ****

MATT FORTE – TOTAL RECEPTIONS

Over 4 Receptions -140

Under 4 Receptions +110

I’m not sure I don’t like this proposition betting entry more than any other. If you recall, Forte broke into the NFL with 63 receptions as a rookie. He added 57 last year, and in the Martz offense he becomes even more important as an outlet for the quarterback.

He’s caught twelve passes for 188 yards in two games so far, and until Cutler develops more of a trust with his wide receivers, I would expect him to look for Forte more and more. He’s Martz’s new Marshall Faulk look-alike.

JAY’S PLAY: OVER 4 (-140) ****

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