NFL Proposition Betting – Saints vs 49ers

Those who like to do proposition betting on the NFL really love Monday nights, because that gives them the chance to play for big money on a lot of different things, and that is why we want to take a look at how some of the props may come down in the game between the San Francisco 49ers and the New Orleans Saints, starting at 8:30 PM ET at Candlestick Park (natural turf). In proposition betting, one of the things we’ll look at, for example, is the length of the longest touchdown in the game. The number is 42.5 yards, and it’s -115 either way.

New Orleans Saints (1-0 SU, 0-0-1 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (10-1 SU & ATS)
Live at Candlestick Park
San Francisco, CA
Monday, September 20 –  8:30 PM ET
TV: ESPN

NFL Betting Odds:
New Orleans -5
San Francisco +5
Total  43.5

Let’s take a look at a few of the NFL betting props on this game:

LONGEST TOUCHDOWN IN THE GAME             
Over  42½  Yards          -115
Under  42½  Yards        -115

I’ll let you in on a little secret – I am not looking for the Niners to get beaten deep in this game. I’m looking to them to bring the heat and force Drew Brees to get rid of the ball quickly, and I suppose I am putting a little weight on that statement of coach Mike Singletary on his coaches’ show that "We WILL stop Drew Brees." Well, maybe they won’t stop him, but they will make him work the ball down the field in small chucks. As for San Francisco (yes, they have an offense too), well, you already know what their strategy is – pound the ball down the field. It remains to be seen whether Alex Smith can make the big play, and his best receivers, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree, are guys who are at their best in mid-range.

JAY’S PLAY: UNDER 42.5 YARDS (-115)

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FIRST SCORING PLAY              
Saints TD          +135
Saints FG         +225
Saints Any Other           +7000
49ers TD           +225
49ers FG           +300
49ers Any Other            +7000

For this one I am going to stick with the theme I’ve had from the start – that the Niners are coming out with some resolve on the defensive side, and you’ve got to remember that (1) they were embarrassed by that 31-6 loss in Seattle, and (2) they actually allowed only 242 yards against the Seahawks. So they didn’t play all that horrible, but they have a chip on their shoulder all the same. The mystery, to me, is the San Francisco offense. How will they do against a New Orleans defense that showed an awful lot of resolve in the opener, presenting a real puzzle to Brett Favre and holding the Vikings scoreless in the second half?

I know that the Niners would LIKE to make this a low-scoring game, and the relative lack of dynamism on the part of Alex Smith makes it almost necessary that they edge their way down the field. Have we said that already? Well, after one game it is impossible to establish patterns that we can rely on, but my guess is that San Francisco is going to take points were it can get them. That means perhaps some money on the "49ers FG" as an option.

By the same token, we also recognize that New Orleans is a fast-starting team, with a habit of scoring on the first drive, and that is a product of the preparedness of both coach Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees. They scored on the first drive of the game against the Vikings, although they were a little slow the rest of the way. I’m not sure I like the +135 proposition betting price here, though.

JAY’S PLAY:  49ERS FG (+300)

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WINNING MARGIN
             
            Saints to win by 1-3 Pts             +500
            Saints to win by 4-6 Pts             +400
            Saints to win by 7-10 Pts           +550
            Saints to win by 11-13 Pts         +900
            Saints to win by 14-17 Pts         +1000
            Saints to win by 18-21 Pts         +1200
            Saints to win by 22 or more       +900
            49ers to win by 1-3 Pts              +500
            49ers to win by 4-6 Pts              +650
            49ers to win by 7-10 Pts            +900
            49ers to win by 11-13 Pts           +1200
            49ers to win by 14-17 Pts           +1500
            49ers to win by 18-21 Pts           +2000
            49ers to win by 22 or more         +1200

I know how explosive the Saints are, and I know that they are perfectly capable of getting out to a big lead and building on it, but somehow I just can’t bring myself to go +1000, for example, on the Saints winning this one by 14-17 points. I don’t mean to sound like the biggest fan in the world of Mike Singletary, because I’m not, but I just don’t see him allowing his team to go out there and lay down after that score in Seattle makes it look like they quit.

I’m forecasting a close game, one where the Niners can take the points, and therefore I don’t see any problem with grabbing the +500 proposition betting price on a game that is decided by a field goal either way.

JAY’S PLAYS:  SAINTS BY 1-3 (+500) and 49ERS By 1-3 (+500)

VERNON DAVIS TOTAL RECEPTIONS              
Over  5½  Receptions    +110
Under  5½  Receptions -140

Davis is going to be the main man Alex Smith looks for on Monday night, and he does offer some bang for the buck, so to speak (I think he’s the highest-paid tight end in the history of the league), as he gained more than 12 yards a reception last year. Smith found him eight times for 73 yards in the season opener, in a game where he did not throw much at all to the wide receivers. I wonder whether this pattern wouldn’t continue, because I think New Orleans feels it can win if it keeps Davis underneath and doesn’t let him get loose. Crabtree will get some extra attention, which will contribute to an "under" for him (+120 for three catches or less).

JAY’S PLAYS:  DAVIS OVER 5.5 (+110) and CRABTREE UNDER 4 (+120)

Do all your NFL proposition betting at BetOnline Sportsbook!