NFL Proposition Betting – Brady Leads Air Attack vs Dolphins

Those who like to do proposition betting on the NFL are all set for Monday Night Football, featuring the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins, and obviously some of the spotlight is going to be on Tom Brady, who is off to a pretty good start with eight TD passes in his first three games.

What can we expect from him in this contest that begins at 8:30 PM ET at Sun Life Stadium (natural turf) in Miami Gardens, FL? This game is currently a pick’em, with the over-under at 48 points, so the oddsmaker is looking for some scoring. In proposition betting odds, Brady is priced at -125 to top 21.5 completions on the evening.

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New England Patriots (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (2-1 SU & ATS)

Live at Sun Life Stadium

Miami Gardens, FL

Monday, October 4 — 8:30 PM ET

TV: ESPN

NFL Betting Odds:

Pick’em

Total 48

NFL Proposition Betting

TOM BRADY TOTAL PASSING YARDS

Over 280½ Yards -110

Under 280½ Yards -120

TOM BRADY TOTAL COMPLETIONS

Over 21½ Completions -125

Under 21½ Completions -105

The story with the New England Patriots, as it relates to proposition betting for our purposes, pretty much amounts to this – it’s a team that is short on running backs. Kevin Faulk, the veteran who has been around forever, and provides a valuable outlet for short passes from Tom Brady, is on the injured reserve list.

Fred Taylor, another veteran, who ran for 16 yards in last week’s New England win over Buffalo, has a toe injury and is being held out of this game. Sammy Morris is being used sparingly, and mostly so that he can catch passes out of the backfield, which in effect was the Faulk role.

Laurence Maroney was shipped off to Denver a couple of weeks ago, and wound up in a starting role with the Broncos. All of this pretty much leaves the team with BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who came through last week with 98 yards on eighteen carries. Running the ball last week served a little higher purpose than just balancing the attack; in fact, New England ran it 38 times, compared with 27 passing plays, and they scored 38 points on Buffalo.

I am still wondering whether that won’t change a little on Monday night, now that Taylor is not going to be available, and you’ll see the effect as far as proposition betting is concerned. I don’t that Bill Belichick is going to want to wear down Green-Ellis, in fear that he might be down to nothing at the position.

Danny Woodhead, who you probably saw running around in the HBO show "Hard Knocks," is now on board, coming over from the jets, but he is too small to be the every-down back, and he is alternating between the backfield and a wider receiver spot anyway.

The point is, for proposition betting purposes, I’m looking for a little more of Brady in the air than usual. He would lick his lips if he could get a matchup of Randy Moss with Jason Allen, one of the Miami cornerbacks, and we saw last week how Allen was caught napping on a touchdown by Braylon Edwards, who could have been drunk and still run the length of the field with his reception.

Tom Brady actually has more balance in his receiving corps this year than he did last season, as Moss and Wes Welker are joined not just by Brandon Tate, but also by rookie tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, and that affects what we’re going to do with these props.

If I were Brady, I would be throwing it early and often, and if at that point it opened things up for the running game, so be it. We’re going "over" with Brady’s stats, and since as Brady goes, Welker goes as we’ll, we are going to follow with some "over" wagers in proposition betting for Monday night.

JAY’S PLAYS:

BRADY OVER 280.5 YARDS (-110) ***

BRADY OVER 21.5 COMPLETIONS (-125) ***

WES WELKER OVER 6.5 RECEPTIONS (-130) **

WES WELKER OVER 65.5 YARDS (-115) ***

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