NFL Prop Bets – QB with the Most Passing Yards

Here is the entire list, with my comments, and I have taken the liberty of putting last year’s yardage total in parentheses:

Most Regular Season Passing Yards

DREW BREES +220 (5069)
What’s incredible about Brees is that he’s going to go ahead and get his numbers no matter who is slumping and who is injured. He and Sean Payton were like a match made in heaven. He’s the favorite, and rightly so.

TOM BRADY +600 (0 – injury)
Many people are expecting that Brady is going to bounce back from his injury and, with the talent he has around him, get back to those old numbers. I think it’s going to be tough to get the timing and rhythm down, because I don’t think he’s going to get a lot of action in the pre-season. It may take 3-4 games, and by that time, he will have lost ground.

KURT WARNER +700 (4583)
I can’t imagine him matching or approaching his 2008 numbers, since Ken Whisenhunt is now calling plays. Then again, with Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston, he’s got the best trio of wideouts in the game.

PEYTON MANNING +700 (4002)
He’ll get his 4000 yards. Beyond that who knows? Anthony Gonzalez should have a better season, but so should the ground attack. So Peyton may mix it up a little more.

AARON RODGERS +1400 (4038)
This guy is a productive quarterback, and for the price, he’d be one of my selections. I see him getting better with this group of receivers, who can run after the catch. If the Packers don’t play any defense, he may become another Jon Kitna – good numbers, few wins. But I’m not betting on that.

PHILIP RIVERS +1400 (4009)
He’ll have nice numbers again, but somehow I’m not sure his WR crew is dynamic enough. And what if Gates gets hurt again?

DONOVAN MCNABB +1400 (3916)
McNabb is another guy I would take a chance on at 14/1. That’s because there are more good outlets coming on board, including LeSean McCoy, who’s going to catch a lot of passes out of the backfield, and Jeremy Maclin, who can run forever after a catch. This could be a very explosive year for the Eagles offense.

TONY ROMO +1800 (3448)
I know that Romo is going to throw it a lot, but the loss of Terrell Owens will cut into his yardage figure.

MATT SCHAUB +1800 (3043)
Schaub has monster Andre Johnson at his disposal, but he’s brittle, and the Texans want to run it more.

JAY CUTLER +1800 (4526)
No chance. His receivers aren’t even close to what he was working with in Denver.

MATT RYAN +1800 (3440)
Ryan probably has the capability of putting up numbers comparable to the top guys on this list, especially with Tony Gonzalez coming aboard, but coach Mike Smith really seeks balance in the offense. Don’t confuse him with Sean Payton.

CARSON PALMER +2000 (731)
There are some possibilities here, as Laveranues Coles should be able to pick up some of the slack left by TJ Houshmandzadeh.

BEN ROETHLISBERGER +2800 (3301)
I think you’ll see Pittsburgh really trying to exploit the run some more with the anticipated duo of Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall.

DAVID GARRARD +3500 (3620)
Garrard will never have the kind of numbers to win this prop, and with a healthier line I am expecting them to pound the ball a lot more under Jack Del Rio.

ELI MANNING +4000 (3238)
Although I’m confident that the Giants will come up with some receivers out of their current group, I don’t see a pass-happy attack here.

TRENT EDWARDS +5000 (2699)
Edwards will improve on his 2008 numbers, with Terrell Owens to throw to, but the nature of this Bills team, which has more depth at running attack, is that he won’t reach that 4000-yard mark.

CHAD PENNINGTON +5000 (3653)
Pennington doesn’t have the kind of arm to get it down the field enough. Plus, some people (I’m not among them) think he’ll relinquish his spot to Chad Henne at some point.

MATT HASSELBECK +5000 (1216)
Hasselbeck threw the ball 562 times two years ago, and now he should have better, healthier receivers to throw to. The staff will find out early on that with Julius Jones and TJ Duckett, they’re not going to run the ball well enough. Hasselbeck may be an interesting small longshot play.

MATT CASSEL +5000 (3693)
Yeah, he’ll throw it a lot, but his receivers don’t compare to those in New England, and he’ll be running for his life in Kansas City.

KYLE ORTON +5000 (2972)
Orton could surprise, though he’s not good enough to challenge the favorites. Plus, he may not have the job all year (Chris Simms is also up for the job).

SHAUN HILL +5000 (2046)
Sure, Michael Crabtree is on board, but there’s no chance of it happening for him with Mike Singletary looking to pound the ball first, second and third.

JAKE DELHOMME +5000 (3288)
No way. There’s too much of a running philosophy in Carolina.

JASON CAMPBELL +6000 (3245)
He’s not good enough. I also suspect Todd Collins may have his job at some point.

JOE FLACCO +6000 (2971)
I do not think they will open the playbook up enough for him. Things worked well without that last year.

MARC BULGER +6000 (2720)
The Rams are going to try to be a power running team this season.

MARK SANCHEZ +7500 (0 – rookie)
As a rookie, I really don’t expect him to be that good.

BRADY QUINN +8000 (518)
Ultimately, I don’t think Quinn is going to be the starter, especially if they want to use the best man for the job.

MATTHEW STAFFORD +10000 (0 – rookie)
Stafford isn’t likely to start the season (Daunte Culpepper will), but will quite possibly take over near the midway point. So no chance.