NFL Predictions – Tampa Bay Covers vs. Atlanta

Some NFL predictions don’t make sense.  This one actually does.  Close to 70% of NFL handicappers believe that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will keep their game vs. Atlanta within the 9-point number on Sunday.

The Atlanta Falcons are coming off of a bye but before the bye they had shown signs of falling apart.  After a terrific 4 game winning streak, Atlanta got their butts handed to them by the Philadelphia Eagles in a 17 to 31 loss.  Then, a week later, the Falcons allowed the Bengals to score 32 points against them in a 39 to 32 victory.

Tampa Bay is actually tied with Atlanta atop the NFC West Division.  Both teams are 5 and 2 straight up.  This game is important to both teams.  Will the Falcons find a way to cover an almost double-digit spread versus the Buccaneers?  Or, will the Bucs discover that they actually do belong on the same field as the Falcons?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

Where:  Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia
When:  Nov. 7th, 2010 at 1:00 pm EST
TV:  FOX
Radio:  Sirius-XM 158 (TB) 113 (ATL) 

NFL Betting Line

Tampa Bay Buccaneers            +9 -110           O 44 ½ -110

Atlanta Falcons             -9 -110                        U 44 ½ -110

The betting trends favor the Buccaneers in this game.

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 5 and 1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 5 and 0 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
• The Atlanta Falcons are 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games versus a team with a winning road record.
• The Atlanta Falcons are 4 and 1 ATS in their last 5 games at home.

[Off topic: by the way, do you want to get a 55% bonus on your first deposit here at BetOnline? If so JOIN NOW.]

Again, a lot of NFL predictions don’t make sense, but the one that says Tampa Bay covers as +9 sportsbook dogs in their game versus Atlanta makes a ton of sense.

The Buccaneers have turned into a decent team.  Save for a 13 to 38 loss to Pittsburgh and a 6 to 31 loss to New Orleans, the Buccaneers have found a way to win 5 games this season and it appears that they’re getting better as a team.

QB Josh Freeman has developed a great rapport with rookie WR Mike Williams.  They’ve hooked up for 4 touchdowns this year.  The Bucs have also found a running back in former Oregon star LeGarrette Blount who has rushed for 222 yards on only 43 carries.  Blount torched Arizona for 120 yards and 2 touchdowns from only 22 attempts.  He has recorded a 6.5 yard per carry average vs. St. Louis and a 5.5 yard per average vs. the Cardinals this season.

It’s important to take a look at the Bucs’ stats on offense because Atlanta’s D has suddenly become, well, less than stellar.  The Falcons’ 23rd ranked defense is very good against the run, allowing only 95 yards per game, but horrible against the pass.  Atlanta has also given up 31 and 32 points in their last 2 games.  Atlanta’s offense is very good, though.  The Falcons average 137 yards per game on the ground and 233 yards per game through the air.  They also average 24 points per game, but even though the Falcons’ offense is better than the Buccaneers, I don’t feel that it’s 9 points better.

To me, the Buccaneers have a big shot at the upset depending on how Atlanta’s D handles the suddenly tough running Blount.  If they can shut down Blount, then they might have a chance of stopping Josh Freeman and Mike Williams from torching them with long touchdowns.

I feel that because both teams should score, any NFL predictions on the game involving over the total makes sense, but I feel more comfortable backing the Bucs to cover the spread.  When it comes to NFL predictions, they don’t get any better than that one in my opinion.  The Bucs’ offense is getting better week to week and it faces an Atlanta D that’s had some issues.

I’m going with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in this contest. 

NFL Betting Pick:  Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9 -110

Get more free NFL Picks for Week 9 games!

Sources:  espn.com, covers.com, nfl.com