NFL Predictions – Undependable Cards Face 49ers

Football betting predictions on the Arizona Cardinals were kind of difficult at the start of the season, because the defending NFC West champs, who made it to the Super Bowl two seasons ago, have been very undependable after losing quarterback Kurt Warner and wide receiver Anquan Boldin, and now they are trying to break a five-game losing streak.

On Monday night the Cards will line up against the San Francisco 49ers, a team from which much more was expected, in a game at the University of Phoenix Stadium (natural turf) that is set to begin at 8:30 PM ET. The Niners are the 1.5-point favorites in the football betting odds, with the total posted at 40.5 points. We’ll make our NFL predictions based on those numbers.

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NFL Predictions

San Francisco 49ers (3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS) at Arizona Cardinals (3-7 SU & ATS)

Live at University of Phoenix Stadium

Glendale, AZ

Monday, November 29 — 8:30 PM ET

TV:   ESPN

Football Betting Odds:

San Francisco  -1.5

Arizona  +1.5

Total 40.5

Here are some of the trends as they impact our NFL prediction on this game:

• San Francisco has lost seven of its last ten games SU
• San Francisco has covered two of its last six games
• San Francisco has lost ten of its last eleven road games SU
• San Francisco is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight road games
• Arizona has played seven of its last nine games OVER the total
• Arizona has lost its last five games SU
• Arizona has covered two of its last nine games
• Arizona has covered two of its last six home games
• Arizona has played its last five home games OVER the total

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The 49ers, who looked like they were making a positive turn with Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith at quarterback, regressed last time out against the Tampa Bay Bucs, netting just 189 yards en route to suffering a home shutout loss that had to be upsetting to coach Mike Singletary. However, if our NFL prediction hinged on the relative directions these teams are headed, that edge might still have to go to San Francisco, because Troy Smith (we mention the full name so as not to confuse him with Alex Smith) at least has provided some leadership since he took over, and on short notice to boot. He’s been sacked eleven times, but he’s also thrown for nine yards an attempt, which represents a successful effort most of the time to get the ball down the field.

Arizona’s shining moment this season was a win over the Saints in Max Hall’s starting debut, aided by numerous miscues on the part of Drew Brees. But they have taken a nosedive, losing five in a row, during which time the Cards have allowed a shade less than 31 points a game. Derek Anderson is what he is, which is a guy who is going to complete slightly more than half his passes (53.7%, to be exact) and make a few mistakes along the way. It’s sort of a shame, because it’s a waste of the talents of Larry Fitzgerald (who has 55 catches nonetheless) and Steve Breaston, who has averaged 16 yards a catch.

Here are some of the head-to-head betting trends with regard to our NFL predictions:

• Four of the last six meetings have gone UNDER the total
• San Francisco has covered four of the last five meetings
• San Francisco has won four of the last six meetings SU
• Five of the last six meetings in Arizona have gone OVER the total

Believe it or not, the team that wins this game is still in the running for the NFC West title. As far as which of these coaches can raise an extra effort out of their troops, which might be a factor in our NFL prediction, we may have to give a slight edge to Singletary. The Niners are probably more likely to get something out of the running game, with Frank Gore a better alternative to Tim Hightower or Beanie Wells, who can’t get untracked due to injuries. Singletary’s team has a few more playmakers on defense, doing a better job against the run, and it’s their defense that might have to keep them afloat in this one as Troy Smith gets something developed.

Don’t think for a moment that San Francisco doesn’t give us pause. The Niners are averaging only 12.5 points on the road, and they have converted less than 33% on third down. but this Arizona team just can’t sustain drives (26.5 minutes of possession time per game) and are a bit more prone to dysfunction than their San Francisco counterparts. In our NFL prediction for Monday night, we are laying the number with the Niners, the 1.5-point favorite in the football betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY:  SAN FRANCISCO -1.5 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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