NFL Predictions – Tampa Bay Bucs Will Upset Cincinnati Bengals

If you’re looking for an NFL betting prediction on a big upset, look no further than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Coming off a bye week is an automatic advantage for any team. Still, calling a win over the Cincinnati Bengals an “upset” is hardly fair.

Cincinnati has looked pretty awful for the last four weeks. A flurry of NFL predictions pegged them as a favorite to win the wildcard spot in the AFC, and despite a 2-2 SU record, they’ve been pedestrian.

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Much of the fingers in Cincinnati are being pointed in Carson Palmer’s direction. Many were hoping for a turnaround year for the 30-year old quarterback, but he’s failed to impress this season. He has 1,078 yards and just 5 touchdowns while also tossing up 3 interceptions.

His numbers, however, don’t tell the whole story. Palmer looks simply lost on the field, and beyond that he looks unconfident and shaky. There’s no doubt in my mind that Palmer deserves much of the blame, but he’s also playing behind a terrible offensive line that’s reduced Cedric Benson to just 3.3 yards per carry.

If you don’t like the Young Bucs to upset the Bengals, then you’ll love betting on the number. Cincinnati is just 3-9 ATS in their past 12 games and are 1-4 ATS in their past 5 at home as well. But if you want to take my NFL prediction for the big upset, then you’ll like that they’ve been 0-5 SU in their last 5 games against Tampa while going just 1-3-1 ATS.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (2-2)

Sunday, October 10th — Paul Brown Stadium — 1:00pm EST

NFL Betting Line: Cincinnati -6.5 (38)

A lot of the metrics about Tampa deserve to be tapered down a little. They’re just 3-8 SU in their last 11 games on the road, but this team is making progress in a hurry. You can literally toss the box score from their game against Pittsburgh out the window. Tampa simply can’t hang with the best teams in the league, and I’ll be damned if I include Cincinnati on that level.

Tampa Bay’s stats also don’t serve a purpose in this NFL prediction. They’re 10th against the pass, but have only played against Jake Delhomme, Matt Moore and Charlie Batch. On top of that they’re without Tanard Jackson, an integral part of their secondary (suspension via illegal substance).

But I still really like this defensive line, anchored by rookie Gerald McCoy. If the former Oklahoma Sooner is going to make an impact, you can surely find him careening off the left side and in to Carson Palmer’s face. I’m telling you right now that Cincinnati’s pocket protection breaks down in a hurry, and the linebackers in Tampa will be there to apply apt pressure in turn.

Joshua Freeman is the big reason I have faith in Tampa’s ability to make good on my NFL prediction. While the Bengals are 9th in pass defense with only 191.8 yards per game allowed, Freeman has been very efficient. He stays on his feet well and knows when to throw the ball away. It helps him out in a big way that Mike Williams has stepped up in his rookie year.

You might think I’m being overzealous about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. You’re right – I am. But they’re starting to turn the corner, and they’re designed to give a team like Cincinnati fits. They’re good at breaking down the pocket, have a heads-up quarterback in Freeman who can pick up first downs on his feet and to back it all up they’ve had two weeks to prepare for this game.

Go ahead and bet on the Bengals if you want to, but I’ve lost complete faith in Carson Palmer’s will to win games. I may be stepping out alone on the edge here with my NFL prediction, but the Bucs will register a big upset by not only clearing the number on this game, but by handing the Bengals another loss.

NFL Prediction – Tampa Bay Bucs Upset Victory

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