NFL Predictions – Should the Steelers be Re-Evaluated?

In doing Football Betting predictions, we may have to re-evaluate the value of the Pittsburgh Steelers, who barely escaped two weeks ago against Miami and lost at New Orleans last Sunday night.

In the Monday night game the Steelers take on the Cincinnati Bengals, a team that is teetering on the edge of virtual playoff elimination, at Paul Brown Stadium (natural turf) in Cincinnati. In the NFL odds for this game, the Steelers are listed as a 5.5-point favorite, with the over-under priced at 41 points. We could be looking at something close to a "must-win" situation for the Bengals.

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Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-5 SU & ATS)

Live at Paul Brown Stadium

Cincinnati, O

Monday, November 8 –  8:30 PM ET

TV:  ESPN

NFL Odds:

Pittsburgh -5.5

Cincinnati +5.5

Total  41

Here are some of the trends as they impact our NFL predictions on this game:

• Pittsburgh has won eight of its last ten games SU
• Pittsburgh has won four of its last five road games SU
• Cincinnati has lost four of its last five games SU
• Cincinnati has covered one of its last five games
• Cincinnati has played six of its last nine games OVER the total
• Cincinnati has played six of its last eight home games UNDER the total
• Cincinnati has won six of its last nine home games SU
• Cincinnati has covered one of its last seven home games

The Steelers looked like the best team in the NFL before Ben Roethlisberger came back from his suspension. But what has happened since he’s come back to action is something that should perhaps be of some concern to Pittsburgh fans. Roethlisberger has a gunslinger mentality as we all know, and that has taken Pittsburgh away from the formula of minimizing mistakes and concentrating on the run. Not that they have fallen off the face of the earth, but they have not been impressive in the last two weeks and are doing things to beat themselves, at least in the NFL odds.

The major question we would ask ourselves is whether the Bengals have given up. Any team that rolls over in a regular season game, like they did against the Jets last year, shouldn’t surprise us with anything. Marvin Lewis is justifiably on the hot seat, but Carson Palmer is one player who has not met expectations. Palmer had a 400-yard game against Atlanta in that donnybrook a couple of weeks ago, but he hit less than 60% (which is low in this day and age) and has not stretched the field (6.6 yards an attempt). 

Here are the head-to-head betting trends as they involve the NFL prediction we might make on this game:

• Pittsburgh has won and covered five of the last seven meetings
• Six of the last nine meetings in Cincinnati have gone UNDER the total
• Pittsburgh has won eight of the last nine meetings SU as the road team
• Pittsburgh is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings as the home team

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One of the things that hits you in the face when you analyze this NFL prediction from a statistical standpoint is that the Steelers have permitted only 2.6 yards per rushing attempt, while Cincinnati has allowed a robust 4.5. This defensive front has been a disappointment, and that provides an opportunity for Rashard Mendenhall to do some work, if Big Ben allows it to happen. What worries us about the Steelers’ ability to pull away in this game is their inability to convert in the red zone. They have scored touchdowns on only 37% of their chances inside the 20-yard line, and only St. Louis, Seattle, Carolina and Chicago were worse in that regard coming into this week of play. Certainly some of that figure was compiled when Charlie Batch at quarterback, but last week at New Orleans the Steelers failed on three plays from about an inch away from the goal line.

You’ve got some things that could point you toward Pittsburgh in your NFL prediction, including double revenge for the Bengals’ season sweep last year, and a pretty good history for the Steelers at Cincinnati (7-1-1 ATS in last nine). But while Palmer doesn’t stretch it like he used to, he can spread it around, and Terrell Owens (45 catches), Chad Ochocinco (39 catches) and Jermaine Gresham (29 receptions) will at least make the Steelers cover most of the field. I’m not sure the "must-win" tag means everything to us here, but this game could be decided by field goals rather than touchdowns, and in a game like that, we would probably rather be on the "take" with the home team. So our NFL prediction here lands us on the Bengals’ side, just barely.

JAY’S PLAY:  CINCINNATI +5.5 *

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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