NFL Predictions – Patriots Have a Task

As we make our NFL predictions for Thanksgiving Day football, we consider that this short week of scheduling might put some teams at a disadvantage, and one of those teams could be the New England Patriots, who are coming off a game against Peyton Manning and the Colts and might find this a task. On Thursday they visit Detroit to play the Lions, in a game that begins at 12:30 PM ET at Ford Field (artificial turf). In the odds we will use to make our NFL predictions on this game, the Pats are a seven-point favorite, with the total posted at 50.5 points.

NFL Predictions

New England Patriots (8-2 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) at Detroit Lions (2-8 SU, 7-3 ATS)

Live at Ford Field

Thursday, November 25 — 12:30 PM ET
TV: CBS

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NFL Odds:

New England -7
Detroit +7
Total 50.5

Here are some of the trends as they impact our NFL prediction on this game:

• New England has won seven of its last eight games SU
• New England has played ten of its last 12 games OVER the total
• New England has played five of its last six road games OVER the total
• Detroit has lost 14 of its last 16 games SU
• Detroit has played six of its last seven games OVER the total
• Detroit has played its last five home games OVER the total
• Detroit has lost 16 of its last 20 home games SU

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New England comes off a game on Sunday in which they came out and played with some purpose, keeping Peyton Manning in relative check, at least until the final quarter. Of course, Manning came on pretty strong and almost led the Colts to a fourth-quarter comeback win. That’s a concern to the Pats and to us as we make our NFL predictions on this holiday. New England failed to cover in the NFL betting odds on that game, although they did play their fourth straight game that went over the total.

Tom Brady looked pretty sharp in the game, hitting 19 of 25 passes. he only threw for 186 yards, but New England was able to work its running game for 168 yards, and that made it easier to convert on third down (they were 7 for 11). Brady has thrown 19 TD’s and has been intercepted only four times.

Here are some of the head-to-head betting trends with regard to our NFL predictions:

• New England has won and covered four of the last six meetings
• Four of the last six meetings have gone UNDER the total

The Lions have lost 26 straight games on the road, and while one of those as a tight 14-12 heart-breaker to the Bills, they were in many ways a comedy of errors last week as they were beaten 35-19 by the Cowboys. They had only 75 rushing yards in that game, and they are going to be behind the eight-ball in a sense as they line up to play the Pats, because rookie Jahvid Best, who has been the team’s leading rusher (albeit at three yards a carry) has turf toe. Yeah, he’ll probably start, but I don’t know if that means anything positive in the formula for our NFL predictions.

There are other factors that can point us in the direction of Detroit here. And one of them is NOT that the Lions are always a tough "out" on Thanksgiving Day, because they have dropped the last six against the number in that role. The Lions are a "tough out," period. They have covered eight of their ten games this season, and no one has accused these guys of laying down this year. The Patriots were caught napping against the Browns earlier when they were coming off that game with Minnesota, and with this quick turnaround it wouldn’t be surprising if they won, but not by a big margin. Shaun Hill (61.6%, 12 TD’s, just 12 sacks) might have enough to exploit a New England secondary that has given up 20 TD passes, and remember that the Lions are #1 in the league in converting red zone chances into touchdowns (70.4%). We’re taking Detroit in our NFL prediction for Thursday.

JAY’S PLAY: DETROIT +7 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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