NFL Predictions – McNabb The Focus as Redskins Host Eagles

Those who dabble in NFL betting predictions like to read into the storylines, and in the Monday night game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Redskins, the focus of the biggest storyline is Donovan McNabb, who was benched last time out in the final minutes.

Michael Vick brings his unique brand of mayhem to the nation’s capital (well, at least the metropolitan area) as the Eagles try to sweep the season series. The game will kick off at 8:30 PM ET at FedEx Field (natural turf) in Landover, MD. In the NFL odds on this game, the Eagles are a three-point favorite, with a total of 43 points posted.

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We will give you our NFL prediction based on those numbers.

Philadelphia Eagles (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS) at Washington Redskins (4-4 SU, 5-2-1 ATS)

Live at FedEx Field

Landover, MD

Monday, November 15 — 8:30 PM ET

TV: ESPN

NFL Odds:

Philadelphia -3

Washington +3

Total 43

Here are some of the trends as they impact our NFL predictions on this game:

• Philadelphia has covered three of its last eleven games
• Philadelphia has played four of its last five games OVER the total
• Philadelphia has won five of its last seven games SU
• Philadelphia has won six of its last nine road games SU
• Philadelphia has covered two of its last six road games
• Philadelphia has played four of its last five road games OVER the total
• Washington has played 12 of its last 18 games OVER the total
• Washington has lost 14 of its last 20 games SU
• Washington is 6-11-1 ATS in its last 18 home games
• Washington has played 13 of its last 19 home games UNDER the total
• Washington has played six of its last nine home games OVER the total
• Washington has lost five of its last seven home games SU

As we make our NFL predictions, we notice that Donovan McNabb is once again getting more publicity than he actually deserves. The quarterback with the overblown reputation was a ballyhooed addition to the Washington Redskins’ roster in the off-season, but got benched in the last two minutes of the Redskins’ loss at Detroit two weeks ago, and when your coach chooses to go with someone like Rex Grossman instead of you with the game hanging in the balance, you have some problems.

You also, know that you are nowhere near being an elite quarterback, and perhaps somewhere along the way many members of the press would stop treating him as such.

McNabb is, however, somebody who can have a sensational game on occasion, and there is justifiable speculation surrounding this NFL prediction as to whether he can do that here, considering the history surrounding a previous benching incident when he was with the Eagles.

He came back in the next game to throw four touchdown passes and subsequently led the Eagles to the playoffs. Now he goes up against his former teammates and former coach for the second time this season.

Here are the head-to-head NFL betting trends as they involve our prediction on this game:

• Ten of the last 14 meetings have gone UNDER the total
• Philadelphia has won 12 of the last 18 meetings SU
• Washington has covered four of the last five meetings
• Seven of the last nine meetings at Washington have gone UNDER the total
• Philadelphia has won eight of the last ten meetings SU as the road team
• Washington has covered four of the last six meetings as the home team

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You can’t disparage anything Philadelphia did on the defensive end last week, as they limited Peyton Manning to less than six yards an attempt, which indicates that the Eagles can certainly keep the other team’s receivers in front of them, and should still be able to do that, even with Ellis Hobbs out of the lineup. McNabb has had six completions of at least 50 yards, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that he throws downfield with any kind of consistency. There has been something made of the absence of Clinton Portis in the lineup, because of the way he picks up blitzes; McNabb has been able to get less in the way of the big play, with less time to throw as he is not in the backfield. That is not lost on us when making this NFL prediction.

I just think that when a team is facing Michael Vick (105.3 QB rating, 7 TD’s, no INT’s, 7.3 yards/carry) across the line of scrimmage, they have to defend the whole field, east to west, north to south, and this particular defense has given up more yards than anyone in the league, save for Arizona and Houston. Because of the proficiency of the 1-2 punch of Vick and LeSean McCoy, Philly has 5.1 yards a carry, and with due respect to Anthony Armstrong, who’s just getting started, the Eagles have the biggest big-play threat on the field in DeSean Jackson. Sure, McNabb could be inspired and have a real big game, especially if the Eagles lay down for him. But they won’t lay down; McNabb was 8 for 19 and gained just 125 yards through the air in the earlier meeting, and that was probably his worst game of the year. In our NFL prediction for Monday, we’re laying the points on the road with Philadelphia, favored by three in the NFL odds.

JAY’S PLAY: PHILADELPHIA -3 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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