NFL Predictions – Falcons Seek Unbeaten Home Record

Those in the business of making NFL predictions acknowledge that the Atlanta Falcons have been a formidable home side this season, and with a goal of going undefeated in the Georgia Dome this year, that is an operative theme as this club takes the field on Thursday night at the Georgia Dome.

The opponent is the Baltimore Ravens, who bear some similarities to them, and have an identical record. Game time is 8:20 PM ET, with television provided by the NFL Network.

Here is BetOnline.com’s resident Ravens expert Ariana with her NFL Betting take:

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The Falcons are a one-point favorite in the NFL odds, with a total of 44 points, and we will make our NFL predictions for this game based on those numbers.

Baltimore Ravens (6-2 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) at Atlanta Falcons (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS)

Live at the Georgia DomeAtlanta, GA

Thursday, November 11 — 8:20 PM ET

TV: NFL Network

NFL Betting Odds:

Atlanta -1
Baltimore +1
Total 44

Here are some of the trends as they might impact our NFL prediction on this game:

· Baltimore has played six of its last nine games UNDER the total
· Baltimore has won five of its last six games SU
· Baltimore has played its last five road games UNDER the total
· Atlanta has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
· Atlanta has won six of its last seven games SU
· Atlanta has won its last five home games SU

I guess it’s fair to say that Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco will bee linked, to an extent, for a while. After all, they came out in the same draft, and there was debate between some scouts as to which of them was going to be a better NFL quarterback.

They had something else in common – both of them were in the starting lineup from the beginning, and led their teams to the playoffs as a rookie. This season Ryan is 62.5% accurate for 1949 yards and 13 TD’s, while Flacco has completed 61% of his passes for 1917 yards and 12 TD’s.

So you see, they’re still kind of similar, and that isn’t lost on us as we make our NFL predictions.

These defenses have borne some similarity to each other (with regard to yards per point), except that Atlanta’s has been more permissive in terms of allowing teams to get down the field.

However, they are more opportunistic, picking off 13 passes, and the Falcons have allowed the opposition to convert 45.5% of their third downs. That defense will most likely be missing standout rookie linebacker Sean Witherspoon, who’s got a knee injury.

Here are the head-to-head betting trends as they involve the NFL prediction we will make on this game:

· Baltimore has won six of the last eight meetings SU
· Baltimore has covered the last seven meetings
· The last seven meetings have gone UNDER the total

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Atlanta would be in good shape if Michael Turner could rush for 100 yards. The Falcons have won all ten of their games when he has reached that mark. The Baltimore defensive front is a rough bunch, but not as rough as, say, the Steelers.

In fact, the Ravens have allowed 4.2 yards per rushing attempt. The Bills and Patriots were able to move the ball with some effectiveness against them as those games went into overtime, although the Miami Dolphins, who like to live by their ground game, were not able to make much headway in last week’s game.

Making an NFL prediction based on the assumption that a team is going to advance the ball on the ground against Baltimore is risky business at best.

However, one must consider the goal Mike Smith established when he took over as the head coach in Atlanta, which was to be a dominant home team. The Falcons have taken some real steps in that direction, winning 17 of their 20 games at the Georgia Dome since Smith started steering the ship.

Ryan is 12-4-1 ATS at home as a starting QB, and he’s won thirteen consecutive starts there straight-up. Generally the Ravens have a style that would make them good travelers, in that they can run the ball and play some defense.

Their results on the road have been mixed; yes, they have beaten the Jets and Steelers, but also suffered defeats at Cincinnati and New England. In this near-pick’em game, we are going to trust the home side just a little more in our NFL prediction, moving with the Falcons, the one-point favorite in the NFL odds for Thursday.

JAY’S PLAY: ATLANTA -1 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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