NFL Predictions – Dolphins to Struggle at Home

Those who make NFL betting predictions have found the Miami Dolphins to be somewhat, well, predictable this season, as they have excelled on the road and struggled at home; will that trend continue?

On Sunday the Dolphins play host to the Buffalo Bills in pro football action that is set to begin at 1 PM ET at Sun Life Stadium (natural turf) in Miami Gardens, Fl. In the odds we’ll use to make our NFL predictions on this game, the Dolphins are a five-point favorite, with the total posted at 39.5 points.

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NFL Predictions

Buffalo Bills (3-10 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Live at Sun Life Stadium

Miami Gardens, FL

Sunday, December 19 — 1 PM ET

TV: CBS

Football Betting Odds:

Miami -5

Buffalo +5

Total 39.5

Here are some of the trends as they impact our NFL prediction on this game:

• Buffalo has played five of its last seven games UNDER the total
• Buffalo has played four of its last five road games OVER the total
• Buffalo has lost six of its last seven road games SU
• Miami has played five of its last seven games UNDER the total
• Miami has played five of its last seven home games OVER the total
• Miami has lost seven of its last eight home games SU
• Miami has covered two of its last eight home games

The Dolphins are still alive in the AFC playoff race (though they need a lot of help), and that’s happened because this team continues to win on the road. They took advantage of a dysfunctional Jets offense last week at the Meadowlands and shut it down. Of course, they gained only 131 yards themselves in the 10-6 win, and of course, much of this has to do with the Jekyll-and-Hyde mature of the way Chad Henne plays. Henne was five of 18 against the Jets, with just 55 yards through the air. In his last five games, he’s had five TD’s and five INT’s. It’s just mediocre, so when we make our NFL predictions we don’t want to get carried away with what he can do, despite the presence of a number of receivers who have been better than expected, including Davone Bess and Anthony Fasano.

Here are the head-to-head football betting trends that have a bearing on our NFL predictions:

• Miami has won four of the last five meetings SU
• Buffalo has covered nine of the last 13 meetings
• Six of the last nine meetings have gone UNDER the total
• Buffalo has covered four of the last six meetings as the road team
• Miami has won eleven of the last 16 meetings SU as the home team

Ryan Fitzpatrick must be credited with making the Bills continue to feel competitive, even as they had gone through their first eight games of the season without a win. The Harvard grad has thrown 21 touchdown passes and has averaged almost 230 yards a game, but he’s completed 29 passes for 300 yards over his last two, and that’s something not lost on us in this NFL predictions analysis. Stevie Johnson, who was so upset with himself after dropping a TD pass in overtime against Pittsburgh, has had just 78 yards in his last two games.

Partially as a result, Buffalo has been going through a bit of a scoring drought, reaching 20 points in only one of its last seven games. This has translated to five unders in those games, and that might dictate where we go with our NFL predictions. But let’s investigate further. Miami has scored a little more than 16 points a game at home, and only one of these games has resulted in a win. But you can’t ignore what this Miami team has done on the defensive side. No team in the last five has gained 300 yards against the Dolphins, and they have really shut down opposition rushing attacks; in the last three games, they have yielded just 155 yards on 65 carries (2.4 ypc), and this was against three teams (Oakland, Cleveland, Jets) who use the run as the cornerstone of their offensive approach.

This would be the key for Miami to break though. Buffalo has not necessarily been a great or consistent running team, but when they have been able to move it on the ground, they have done best For example, if you want to examine their three wins in the last five games, they have been accomplished with their three best rushing totals – 149 against Detroit, 141 against Cincinnati and 192 against Cleveland last week. We know Miami goes to sleep at home sometimes, but our NFL prediction is that they step up this week, and we’ll lay the points with the Fish.

JAY’S PLAY: MIAMI -5 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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