NFL Predictions – Dolphins Down to Third-Strong Quarterback

Those who engage in NFL betting predictions know that even though the Miami Dolphins won their game on Sunday, they suffered a double whammy as they lost not one, but two quarterbacks, and must now go with a third-stringer.

On Thursday night they play host to the Chicago Bears in a game that kicks off at 8:20 PM ET at Sun Life Stadium (natural turf) in Miami Gardens, FL for telecast by NFL Network.

In the NFL odds for this game, the Dolphins are favored by one and a half points, with the total posted at 39 points, and this is the basis upon which we will make our NFL predictions.

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Chicago Bears (6-3 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS)

Live at Sun Life Stadium

Miami Gardens, FL

Thursday, November 18 — 8:20 PM ET

TV: NFL Network

NFL Odds:

Miami -1.5

Chicago +1.5

Total 39

The Dolphins started out their preparations last week by pondering whether they wanted to keep Chad Henne in the lineup as their starting quarterback. Tony Sporano made the decision to go with Chad Pennington instead, and it looked like it could turn out a true stroke of inspiration, because after all, Pennington’s last season as a starter resulted in a playoff spot and runner-up in the MVP voting. So our NFL predictions included his dependability as a factor. Then he was injured on the second play from scrimmage; the same shoulder that had halted him before, and just like that, he is now thinking about a second career. Henne went in the game and started to click, completing 19 of 28 passes before HE went down with a knee injury.

Enter the Wildcat for a while, and then the "third guy." Tyler Thigpen was an afterthought, a former Kansas City Chief from Coastal Carolina who threw eight passes last season. Thigpen led an 85-yard touchdown drive that closed the door on Tennessee, and leads us to a new dimension this week in terms of which way we will go with our NFL prediction. Yes folks, we’ve got some fallen Chads, and you knew it had to be said in this review sooner or later. Just so you don’t have to go out and get a scorecard though, Thigpen starts this week, with Patrick Ramsey as the backup, and Tom Brandstater as the third team QB, currently on the practice squad. One important note – Jake Long, the left tackle, is questionable with an injury to his labrum, and we imagine it will be a game-time decision.

Here are some of the NFL trends as they impact our prediction on this game:

• Chicago has won eight of its last 11 games SU
• Chicago has played six of its last seven games UNDER the total
• Chicago has lost 15 of its last 23 road games SU
• Chicago has won four of its last five road games SU
• Chicago is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 road games
• Chicago has played six of its last eight road games UNDER the total
• Miami has played its last five home games OVER the total
• Miami has lost five of its last six home games SU
• Miami has covered five of its last 17 home games
• Four of the last six meetings have gone UNDER the total

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The Bears seemed to use the bye week to their advantage, as evidenced by their offensive line surrendering just two sacks over the last two games. They also became a lot more proficient on third down against the Bills and Vikings, making good on 18 of 31 chances. Part of it is that they are running the ball with more proficiency, and it looks like Jay Cutler is starting to grasp the Mike Martz system.

Let’s lay out a couple of things about Tyler Thigpen, lest you think the Dolphins are throwing a virtual rookie out there. This guy was essentially the starting quarterback for the Chiefs two years ago, and threw 420 passes. His numbers were not that bad; he completed 55%, which was low, but he had 18 TD’s and 12 interceptions, and that is basically the same ratio that Cutler has right now. Plus, he had 386 yards rushing, and that is another key to our NFL prediction.

You see, the Chiefs turned to Thigpen because if you recall, that was the year that everybody was copying Miami’s Wildcat look, and Thigpen ran a spread offense at Coastal Carolina. They figured, "What the hell," and just ran a spread the rest of the season with him. What I’m saying is, don’t be surprised if the Dolphins run a spread option for much of this game, which is sort of another word for the "Wildcat," and Thigpen gives them something they didn’t have before, and which they tried to get when they drafted Pat White – a guy taking the snap who can run or pass out of that formation.

You know where we’re going here, don’t you? The Bears seem back on the right track on offense. The Dolphins may have found a marriage of Wildcat and pro-set, and don’t lose very much at all with Thigpen. Throw in a coupe of big special teams plays from Devin Hester and we’ve got a game that could be "over" by the end of the third quarter. Our NFL prediction is that this game will exceed the total.

JAY’S PLAY: OVER 39 ****
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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