NFL Predictions – Colts Seek Revenge

In making our NFL betting predictions in the Monday night game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans, we know that the Colts are seeking some revenge against the team that beat them in the season opener, and now they are short-handed as they go into this home game, scheduled for an 8:30 PM ET start on ESPN.

We’re going to see a duel between two quarterbacks who were named to the Pro Bowl last season, Peyton Manning of the Colts and Matt Schaub of the Texans. It’s at Lucas Oil Stadium (artificial turf) in Indianapolis, and the NFL odds on this game have the Colts favored by five points, with the total posted at 51.5 points.

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Houston Texans (4-2 SU, 2-3-1 ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS)

Live at Lucas Oil Stadium

Indianapolis, IN

Monday, November 1– 8:30 PM ET

TV: ESPN

NFL Odds:

Indianapolis -5

Houston +5

Total 51.5

Here are some of the trends as they impact the NFL predictions we make on this game:

• Houston has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
• Houston has won eight of its last ten games SU
• Houston is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games
• Houston has played six of its last nine road games UNDER the total
• Houston has won four of its last five road games SU
• Indianapolis has played nine of its last 13 games OVER the total
• Indianapolis has won four of its last five games SU
• Indianapolis has won 17 of its last 19 home games SU

Much of the story involving the Indianapolis Colts surrounds injuries. And even though Peyton Manning has been able to adapt to the absence of many receivers over the years, there are questions as to whether the current state may be too much to overcome, and how much it should affect out NFL predictions.

Austin Collie, who was an incredible find for Manning after being drafted in the fourth round out of BYU; a youngster who already had 44 catches this season, is out with a broken hand. Dallas Clark, an invaluable target for Manning because he is not only a productive tight end but a guy who could split out, is lost for the rest of the season. In all likelihood, Joseph Addai, who has gained his value as a receiver out of the backfield, will not play because of a neck injury.

Manning will have Anthony Gonzalez back in the lineup after missing time with an ankle injury. Also, Pierre Garcon, who had missed a couple of games but then gave the lineup a shot in the arm with 160 yards in the last two games, is available despite a hamstring that has been bothering him. The Colts would clearly like to run more, but can they? Donald Brown and Mike Hart have a combined 174 yards this year.

Let’s not forget that Houston’s top defender (in the minds of many), linebacker DeMeco Ryans, is gone for the year.

Houston finished 9-7 last year, but not much has changed regarding the inconsistency of this team, and it baffles those who make NFL predictions. In losses to the Giants and Cowboys, both at home, they have looked God-awful. However, they’ve looked very good at times too. Gary Kubiak had always had faith in quarterback Matt Schaub, and last year he justified that faith, with 4770 yards passing.

Most people would put Andre Johnson (216 catches the last two years, 32 this season) near the top of the list among wide receivers. However, when they posted a win over the Colts in the opener, Johnson caught only three passes and Schaub threw for 107 yards. The star on that day was Arian Foster, the undrafted running back out of Tennessee who rambled for 231 yards and three touchdowns, exposing a real chink in Indy’s armour.

Foster is averaging 5.5 yards a carry, and the Colts are yielding 4.8.

Here are the head-to-head football betting trends as they involve predictions on this game:

• Indianapolis has won 15 of the last 17 meetings SU
• Houston has covered four of the last five meetings
• Ten of the last eleven meetings have gone OVER the total
• Indianapolis has won the last eight meetings SU as the home team
• Six of the last seven meetings in Indianapolis have gone OVER the total

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Houston does not have a good history in Indianapolis, as the Texans have been outscored by an average of 15.6 points a game. Prior to the opener, they had been dominated completely. There is no doubt in my mind that Manning can get some revenge her, but can he do it and cover the spread at the same time? That’s the question as we ponder our NFL predictions.

No team is better at scoring touchdowns in the red zone than the Texans, who have converted on twelve of 17 opportunities. Indianapolis has scored 67% of the time, so what we have here are the NFL’s top two red zone teams, with very discernible weaknesses in the defense that can be exploited by the other team’s strength. Indeed, it has been no accident that ten of the last eleven meetings between these two have gone over the total. Not since 2004, however, has the total been posted this high (the teams split on totals of 57 and 55.5 that year).

The Colts will concentrate on slowing Foster, but that will leave them open elsewhere. Teams that have not been known for offense (like Washington and Oakland, for example) have moved it on Houston’s defense, which has allowed a whopping 8.2 yards per pass attempt and 69% completions. Manning will certainly miss Clark, but he really is the great improviser. And of course, the absence of Bob Sanders makes the Colts vulnerable to anyone who can run the ball. Enjoy watching this game go over the total. That’s our NFL prediction.

JAY’S PLAY: OVER 51.5 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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