NFL Predictions – Colts Battle for Playoff Lives

Those who make NFL predictions would never have forecast that at this point in the season, the Indianapolis Colts would be battling to stay over the .500 mark, yet they are, and on Thursday night they go on the road to face the Tennessee Titans as they fight for their playoff lives. Kickoff is at 8:20 PM ET at LP Field in Nashville, in a game televised on NFL Network. In the football betting odds, the Colts are a three-point favorite, with the total on the game posted at 44.5 points. We will make our NFL predictions based on those numbers.

Indianapolis Colts (6-6 SU & ATS) at Tennessee Titans (5-7 SU & ATS)

Live at LP Field
Nashville, TN
Thursday, December 9 — 8:20 PM ET
TV:   NFL Network

Football Betting Odds:
Indianapolis -3
Tennessee +3
Total  44.5

Here are some of the trends as they impact our NFL prediction on this game:

·         Indianapolis has lost four of its last five games SU
·         Indianapolis has lost five of its last seven road games SU
·         Indianapolis has won 13 of its last 19 road games SU
·         Indianapolis has played eight of its last nine road games OVER the total
·         Tennessee has lost its last five games SU
·         Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last five games
·         Tennessee has played six of its last nine home games OVER the total
·         Tennessee has lost four of its last five home games SU
·         Tennessee has covered one of its last five home games

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At this point last season, the Colts were 12-0, so I guess this was one of those cases where it’s "What a difference a year makes." What has happened is that Indianapolis has suffered quite a bit of attention in the receiving corps, where Peyton Manning doesn’t seem to know who he is going to throw to from week to week. Austin Collie, for example, has been ruled out of the game again. Anthony Gonzalez, a former first-round draft choice, is gone for the year. So is tight end Dallas Clark, who was probably Manning’s favorite receiver. Joseph Addai has been missing most of the year too. The trainer’s room has been full, to say the least, and that is a factor in our NFL prediction.

What might be missing from the analysis of most people is that the Colts’ offensive line has been hurting as well. The effect of that is tremendous. Manning has been taking more abuse when dropping back; only 13 sacks, but a lot of "hurries." And when he hurries, he makes mistakes. That’s why he has thrown eleven interceptions in his last three games, four of which have been returned for TD’s. That would have never been anyone’s NFL prediction, although it makes you wonder what Manning would do with the kind of protection (bad protection, that is) a lot of NFL quarterbacks receive.

Here are the head-to-head football betting trends that might affect our NFL prediction:

·         Nine of the last ten meetings have gone UNDER the total
·         Indianapolis has won eleven of the last 14 meetings SU
·         Indianapolis has won five of the last seven meetings SU as the road team
·         Four of the last five meetings in Nashville have gone UNDER the total

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At least Manning has demonstrated that when he gets some time, or even a little time, he can hit quite a few passes. Tennessee has problems that might be a little more difficult to overcome. The Titans have not scored a touchdown on offense in the last thirteen quarters, and they are using Kerry Collins at quarterback, as he has probably returned a little early from his calf injury. hat the Titans do have is a running back (Chris Johnson) who might be able to exploit the Colts’ defensive line, which has allowed 4.8 yards a carry. Still, that has not helped them in their last four games, where they have scored just 35 points.

The Colts have scored touchdowns on nearly 71% of their possessions in the red zone, which makes them the best in the NFL in that category. In compiling our NFL prediction, perhaps a consideration is who is going to succeed at a higher rate when being in scoring position, and Indianapolis is going to have a big edge in that area. Even as badly as they have played – including Manning – the Colts have come very close to beating the Patriots and went to overtime against the Cowboys last week. They certainly don’t want to risk falling two games behind Jacksonville at this point, so desperation might be on their side. We will lay the field goal with the Colts in our NFL prediction for Thursday.

JAY’S PLAY:  INDIANAPOLIS -3 ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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