NFL Predictions – Chargers Looking for Lightning

Our NFL predictions for the Monday night game take us San Diego, where the Chargers will look for lightning to strike against the Denver Broncos in a key AFC West game that is set to kick off at 8:30 PM ET at Qualcomm Stadium (natural turf) in San Diego.

Both teams are still in the division race, and while the Chargers are coming from a bye week, Denver routed the Kansas City Chiefs last time out. In the football betting odds for this contest, the Chargers are an 8.5-point favorite, with the total listed at 50 points.

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Denver Broncos (3-6 SU & ATS) at San Diego Chargers (4-5 SU & ATS)

Live at Qualcomm Stadium

San Diego, CA

Monday, November 22 –  8:30 PM ET

TV:  ESPN

NFL Odds:

San Diego -8.5

Denver +8.5

Total  50

Here are some of the trends as they impact our NFL predictions on this game:

• Denver has covered one of its last five games
• Denver has played five of its last six games OVER the total
• Denver has lost four of its last five games SU
• Denver has lost five of its last six road games SU
• Denver has covered two of its last six road games
• Denver has played six of its last eight road games OVER the total
• San Diego has played six of its last eight games OVER the total
• San Diego has won 15 of its last 21 games SU
• San Diego has played seven of its last nine home games OVER the total
• San Diego has won eight of its last ten home games SU

For Denver, the issue last week seemed to be why Todd Haley did not shake Josh McRoberts’ hand after the 49-29 win at Invesco Field at Mile High. In piecing it together, it’s mainly because McRoberts left his starters in the game a bit too long, and they were taunting a bit as well. Denver has not had a lot to celebrate this season, and in our NFL predictions we have to consider that they hadn’t won a game since the fourth week of the season.

You can’t blame the passing game much, because Kyle Orton, who was being "pushed" by Brady Quinn and first-round draft choice Tim Tebow before they started to put pads on, has thrown for eight yards an attempt, with 16 TD’s and only five interceptions. For a while he was considered a threat to set the all-time record for yards in a season, and I guess with a late rush that’s still possible, but one of the things we plug into the formula as we do out NFL prediction is that Denver turned to the running game more last week – a lot more. They ran it 31 times, which was more than they had since the Week 2 win over Seattle, and that is because Knowshon Moreno is healthy and playing.  He had 106 yards against Kansas City.

Here are the head-to-head betting trends as they involve the NFL predictions we make on this game:

• San Diego has won six of the last eight meetings SU
• San Diego is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings
• San Diego has won four of the last six meetings SU as the home team

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The Chargers had a bye week, and they benefit from that more than most. This team has been decimated by banged-up receivers and absences of key players. Vincent Jackson hasn’t played at all. Marcus McNeil (tackle) only recently came back. Shawne Merriman was let go. yet this team is #1 in the NFL in offensive yards and #2 in yards allowed on defense. Phillip Rivers has 19 TD passes and 2944 yards, and he has had to work with second and third team pass catchers. The bye week has gotten them a bit healthier, in that Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee, as well as tight end Antonio Gates, are expected to play.

A cornerstone of our NFL predictions involves what San Diego has been able to do to teams at home. yes, they lost by eight points to New England, but they also routed the likes of Jacksonville and Arizona, and beat Tennessee by eight points. Denver’s defense is much more permissive against the pass than San Diego’s. This is usually the time of year when San Diego makes a strong move, and the numbers themselves (San Diego outgains foes by a 420-275 margin on average) tells us that with a couple of breaks, a double-digit victory is not only possible, but should be expected. The thing that could kill San Diego is its special teams play, but they’ve had time to work on that during the bye week too. Rivers has a passer rating of 110.8 in his career against Denver, and to put that into perspective, he is having what many consider to be his best season, and his rating is 102.9. We’re going with t San Diego minus the points in our NFL prediction for Monday night.

JAY’S PLAY:  SAN DIEGO -8.5 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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