NFL Playoff Predictions – Ravens are Road Warriors

Making NFL playoff predictions is a tough thing, and this Sunday it is no exception, as the Baltimore Ravens, who have been road warriors in the playoffs, travel to a very rough place to play – Arrowhead Stadium – to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the first round of the AFC playoffs, set to kick off at 1 PM ET.

The football betting odds have the Ravens laying three points as the visitor, with the total on the game posted at 40.5 points. These are the numbers by which we will make our NFL playoff prediction on this game.

[Off topic: by the way, do you want to get a 55% bonus on your first deposit here at BetOnline? If so JOIN NOW.]

NFL Playoff Predictions: 

Baltimore Ravens (12-4 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS)

Live at Arrowhead Stadium

Kansas City, MO

Sunday, January 9 -  1 PM ET

TV: CBS

Odds for NFL Playoff Predictions:

Baltimore -3

Kansas City  +3

Total  40.5

Here are some of the trends we use as we make our NFL playoff predictions:

• Baltimore has won six of its last seven games SU
• Baltimore has played four of its last six games UNDER the total
• Baltimore has won four of its last six road games SU
• Baltimore has played six of its last nine road games UNDER the total
• Baltimore is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six road games
• Kansas City has won five of its last seven games SU
• Kansas City has played four of its last five games UNDER the total
• Kansas City has won seven of its last eight home games SU
• Kansas City has played four of its last five home games UNDER the total

To lay points as a road favorite in your NFL playoff prediction, you have to have some real fundamental advantages going in your favor. So the question becomes whether the Baltimore Ravens are a team that fits that category as they take on the Chiefs, at a very tough place to play. Arrowhead Stadium has been very friendly to the Chiefs since it was remodeled; Kansas City’s only loss there this year was in the season finale, when admittedly there was  a bit of an "edge" off the team as it had clinched the division title the week before.

Baltimore was involved in a battle for the AFC North title but fell short as Pittsburgh won the tie-breaker. This is a team that has proven its mettle on the road in playoff action, and when you have won games at Miami, New England and Tennessee in the last couple of seasons in post-season play, playing at Arrowhead against a young squad that hasn’t been to the playoffs much in recent memory is not that big an obstacle.

Here are the head-to-head betting trends that have a bearing on our NFL playoff prediction:

• Four of the last six meetings have gone OVER the total
• Four of the last five meetings in Kansas City have gone UNDER the total

All the credit in the world has to go out to Kansas City and the way it has come very far in a short period of time under Todd Haley. and no one can doubt that the Chiefs’ running game is for real. Jamaal Charles was a monster, averaging 6.4 yards a carry, and then you’ve got Thomas Jones (896 yards) in relief. We have to concede that the Ravens haven’t been as good as they’ve been in the past at snuffing out the run, but they haven’t been too bad either (3.9 ypc, which ranks them seventh in the league). One of the other factors in our NFL playoff prediction is the effort of Matt Cassel, who had 27 TD’s and just seven INT’s, but Cassel doesn’t really get the ball far down the field, unless it’s Dwayne Bowe running with it, and I think Ed Reed will help take care of those big plays.

Kansas City is the playoff entrant that most closely resembles one of those college teams who blew up their record against a weak schedule, and you know that’s going to be a factor in any NFL playoff prediction. It’s not their fault, but the Chiefs beat only one team that ended the year with a winning record, and that was San Diego, in the season opener, and they took advantage of a lot of special teams blunders that are simply not going to present themselves against mentally-tough Baltimore. Joe Flacco has been the guy at the controls when the Ravens have won those road playoff games, and he is operating with a much better core of receivers than he has in the past. Ray Rice is starting to make his presence know a lot more over the last few weeks, and the defection of Charlie Weis (offensive coordinator) from an NFL playoff team to the same position with the University of Florida indicates something disconcerting going on under the surface between him and Haley. That can’t be a positive. In our NFL playoff prediction, we’re laying the points with the Ravens.

JAY’S PLAY:  BALTIMORE -3 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

Make your NFL playoff predictions and bet them right now at BetOnline Sportsbook, click here!