NFL Playoff Picks: NY Jets at San Diego

The hottest team to end the NFL regular season, the San Diego Chargers host the seven point underdog New York Jets this Sunday at 4:40 PM ET at Qualcomm Stadium in what appears to be the most mismatched game of the divisional round.

NFL Betting Odds:

New York Jets +7
San Diego Chargers -7
O /U 42

NFL Betting Tip: The odds opened up earlier this week with the Chargers being favored by 9 points, but with money coming in on the Jets odds-makers dropped the betting spread to 7.

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Even though the Jets beat the Bengals two weeks in a row and are confident about defeating the Chargers this week they will need a stronger effort to beat a well rested San Diego team.

Sanchez posted a passer rating of 139.4, the higher for a rookie QB in playoffs history, but all his throws were low risk but now the Jets go up against a Chargers team who have a strong pass defense and can create a lot of turnovers.

"We’ve improved as an offense … taking care of the football and making the right decisions, which is sometimes a conservative one and just playing smart," Sanchez said. "I have plenty of room to improve. I haven’t arrived. I’ve still got a long way to go."

A key for the New York’s recent success is that they haven’t committed a turnover in the last three games, something that is essential if you want to win in the postseason.

However the Jets need to establish the run first, the o-line is arguably the best one in the league and will outplay an overrated Chargers defensive line. New York will need to manage the clock and tire out the San Diego’s defense and keep in Phillip Rivers off the field.

Expect RBs Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene to have a big games this Sunday, they will share carries to avoid tipping the play.

On the other side there is a talented set of players on the San Diego’s offense looking to give LaDainian Tomlinson probably his last shot to win a ring.

"We’ve been there before. We’ve been the popular pick to win the Super Bowl before and haven’t," linebacker Shawne Merriman said. "Our whole mentality this year is completely different, in not looking too far ahead down the road. That’s been the big key this year altogether, is not looking too far down the road."

Expect Rivers to spread the ball against the best total defense in the NFL knowing that his best receiver, Vincent Jackson, will be cover by Darrelle Revis, one of the league’s best CB.

The Jets own a superb secondary led by Revis who is often line up one on one with the game bests receivers, he held Randy Moss, Andre Johnson and Chad Ochocinco into their worst offensive outputs this season.

NFL Betting Tip: Teams that travel from cold weather games to warm weather games usually have a hard time practicing during the week. The change in temperature takes a toll on the field. The temperature in Cincinnati last week was 26 degrees Fahrenheit. The weather in San Diego on Sunday will be in the 60s. That is a 40 degree swing.

"I think they’re the best defense we’re going to play," running back LaDainian Tomlinson said. "They do a lot of things well. But they’ve got the winning formula. They run the ball well and they play good defense. You look at teams throughout history that have done well, those are the teams that had that winning formula."

Look for Antonio Gates to be the go to guy this weekend and Malcolm Floyd to be the alternative on inside routes; forget about Vincent Jackson, he won’t be able to win the battle against Revis.

Consider these NFL betting trends: San Diego is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games and NY Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games. Also the total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego’s last 6 games.

My pick: the Bolts and the over

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