NFL Playoff Odds – Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys (-4)

Eagles vs. Cowboys (-4)
(O/U) 45
Saturday, January 9 8:00 PM ET

The Dallas Cowboys (11-5, 9-7 ATS, 6-10 O/U) exercised their December demons this season, squashing them in a big way winning three of four games in the month and by beating the Philadelphia Eagles (11-5, 9-7 ATS, 10-6 O/U) 24-0 in the biggest game of the year for both franchises.

After beating their longtime NFC East rivals at home in Week 17, the ‘Boys will try to duplicate their feat from a week ago while winning their first playoff game since 1996.

The Eagles will try to shake off their disappointment and get back in the win column after having their division title hopes and six-game winning streak snapped.

Philadelphia 411

• Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
• Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff road games.
• Eagles are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 road games.

The Eagles lost to Dallas 24-0 in Week 17, getting shutout for the first time since 2005. The Birds failed to cover the NFL point spread as a 3-point road underdog as Donovan McNabb lost one fumble and was sacked four times.

Philadelphia has failed to cash in for pro NFL football betting backers in two straight games but has gone a respectable 5-5 ATS over its last 10 games overall and a bankroll-boosting 5-3 ATS on the road.

The Eagles ranked 11th in total offense this season, ranking 10th in passing yards (255.1) but just 22nd in rushing (102.8).

Defensively, Philadelphia ranked 12th in total yards, 17th in pass defense (216.4) and ninth against the run (104.7) while allowing 21.1 points per game (19th).

Dallas 411

• Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.
• Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games.

The Cowboys win over Philadelphia was the team’s third consecutive SU and ATS victory. Quarterback Tony Romo passed for 311 yards with two touchdowns while Felix Jones and Marion Barber each added 91 rushing yards in the win.

Dallas has gone a solid 6-4 ATS over the last 10 games and 5-3 ATS at home this season.

The Cowboys ranked second in total offense (399.4 ypg), including sixth in passing (267.9) and seventh in rushing (131.4).

Defensively, Dallas ranked ninth in total yards, but gave up 225.9 passing yards per game (20th). The Cowboys excelled at stopping the run, allowing just 90.6 rushing yards per game (fourth) and gave up just15.6 points per game this season (second).

What the Eagles need to do to win

Offensively, Philadelphia needs to run the ball much better than they did against Dallas in their regular season finale when they rushed the ball just 10 times for 37 yards.

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If Philadelphia can’t run the ball effectively, Dallas will use its powerful front seven to put a whipping on Donovan McNabb for the second straight game. The Birds also need to complete at least one or two deep passes against the Cowboys to keep them from routinely putting eight in the box while getting the ball in the hands of their most elusive player, running back Brian Westbrook early and often.

Defensively, Philadelphia needs to stop the run. If the Eagles allow either Marion Barber or Felix Jones to run wild like they did in Week 17, this game could be over by halftime.

It also wouldn’t hurt the Birds if they can force Tony Romo into a couple of mistakes. That may be a bit easier said than done however, with the Cowboys’ signal caller playing virtually flawless football for the last six weeks.

What the Cowboys need to do to win

Pound the Eagles up front on both sides of the ball. If Dallas can win the battle at the line of scrimmage, they should be able to duplicate their win from a week ago. If Barber and Jones can break one or two runs, Romo will be able to throw the ball more effectively and Philly’s aggressive blitzing defense will be mostly on its heels.

Defensively, the Cowboys need to continue getting pressure on Donovan McNabb and keep Philadelphia from completing the deep ball. Philadelphia has two speedy wide receivers in DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, but the Cowboys have been playing absolutely fantastic defensive football up front.

Keeping Jackson and McNabb from hooking up deep will likely go a long way toward beating a Philadelphia team that had been playing phenomenal football prior to their Week 17 matchup against the Cowboys.

Key Head-to-Head Trends

• Eagles are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Dallas.
• Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
• Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.
• Underdog is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

Analysis: I really liked the way the Eagles were playing heading into their Week 17 regular season finale at Dallas and genuinely thought they’d beat the Boys and win the NFC East.

But after witnessing last weekend’s total annihilation of the Eagles, I just can’t bring myself to go against Dallas in this contest.

NFL Playoff Free Pick: Cowboys -4 Points/Under 45 Total Points

While I’m certainly not expecting anything close to last week’s rout, I like the Cowboys to end their long playoff losing streak and cover the spread against Philadelphia by the narrowest of margins.

I know the Eagles have gone an impressive 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Dallas and that the road team in this rivalry has gone a consistent 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings, but I’m backing Dallas to put a dent in both of those trends.

The Cowboys have gone an encouraging 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following an SU win while also going a blistering 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.

Dallas has won two straight against the Eagles and three of four overall and just seems to have more momentum heading into this contest than their longtime rivals.

I also like the Cowboys because the Eagles have long had this tendency to underachieve once they get into the postseason. I know most of Philly’s postseason failures usually come in the conference championship game, but this year, I think Dallas doesn’t allow the Birds to make it that far into the postseason.

Now, I’d be lying if I said the Eagles have absolutely no chance at winning this game.

The fact of the matter is that both teams recorded identical 11-5 records this season and are about as evenly matched up as two teams could possibly be.

However, I like the Cowboys’ focus coming into this game and think the fact that they are playing at home will likely be the deciding factor in a contest I think may turn out to be the best wild card matchup of the season.

I say, play the Cowboys to win and cover the NFC wild card spread while the Under plays out.

NFL Expert Picks: Cowboys -4 Points/Under 45 Total Points

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