NFL Playoff Betting – What You Need to Know

The wild card round saw a situation where two road underdogs (the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets) not only covered games in NFL betting odds, but actually won them straight-up, and in no uncertain terms. That’s not all that “crazy” as the top two seeds are left out of each conference, but when you get to the divisional round, where the "best" teams who were rewarded with a bye are playing host to teams who won the previous weekend, and when theoretically the cream starts rising to the top, it should be a different story, right?

Well, yes and no.

There was a time, and it was not long ago, when home teams who were favored had a very big advantage in the NFL betting odds when we got to this particular playoff round, where the home teams have been determined by won-lost records since the 1975 season.

It’s not bad to use that year as a frame of reference, because home field often determines favorites when playing at this level. Well, since then, favorites of less than seven points have brought back a negative return (31-35-2 ATS). Favorites of seven points or more have been much more successful, covering 56% of the decisions (37-29-2 ATS). They have also won big a healthy percentage of the time, creating margins of 14 points or more at a 43.7% rate. Only 24.4% of the games have been decided by a field goal or less.

Whatever the margin, favorites have not had a big problem winning straight-up, for the most part, posting a 94-41 record (a shade under 70% of the time). Home teams have about the same record straight-up (96-40 SU, or 70.6%), which kind of makes sense, when you consider that home teams are almost always favored in this playoff round. In point of fact, only five times since 1975 have home teams been underdogs.

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We might be in the era of the road underdog at this playoff juncture. Teams in this role have covered ten of the last 12 instances, and their proficiency goes back even farther than that. Up to 2003, road dogs were just a 43.7% proposition, which made it a lot easier for handicappers. Since ’03, they have covered 66.7% of these divisional round games.

This has proven to be quite a "trap" indeed. In fact, in each of the last four seasons, there has been a #1 seed that has gone down after they had a bye week. There are multiple factors that might contribute to making it a tricky proposition. One is the question of "sharpness." There may be difficulty getting into "game mode" against a team that ramped up to a higher level of intensity the week before, and that might cancel out the benefit of being fresher and perhaps healthier.

Teams that are coming off a bye week often have clinched their playoff position early, and they have to face decisions involving resting of players. We saw that come into focus with the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints in particular. For the Colts, it was a big dilemma, because they had a chance to challenge for immortality with an undefeated record, but coach Jim Caldwell decided to have his team lay down for the final two games of the season.

As a result of such activity (or lack of same, as it were), they may have gone for weeks without playing a game with a pressurized atmosphere, and there is that possibility of getting stale in that time.

After beating Cincinnati 30-10 on December 13, Minnesota Vikings was under no real pressure after sewing up a division title, and that was reflected in their remaining games, save for the rout over the Giants two weeks ago. Indianapolis basically sat out the last two weeks, and then had a bye, which means they’ll be putting forth their first real effort in a month. This is something that has killed them in the past, so they need to be careful. New Orleans last won a game on December 13, and there are more than a few people who think they might have peaked early and may not be able to get their "edge" back.

Of the four "bye teams" who will be hosting divisional round playoff games this weekend, the San Diego Chargers are the team that has managed to maintain a head of steam. They won eleven games in a row, and in an AFC West division that was less and less competitive with each passing week, they won road games at Dallas and Tennessee, and took the measure of Cincinnati at home. That may supply a clue about what’s to come, and might make the Chargers a good possibility to escape what has become a "bye team curse" in the divisional playoff round.

Then again, maybe not.