NFL Playoff Betting Odds Point to Possible Green Bay Upset Over Atlanta

The football betting odds makers aren’t giving Atlanta a ton of respect in their Divisional Playoff game versus the Green Bay Packers on January 15th.

If odds makers really believed in the Dirty Birds, then they’d be bigger favorites than the -2 ½ points that they are in the sportsbook. Atlanta is the #1 seed in the NFL. They’ve also beaten the Packers already once this season.

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Can they do it again? Or, will Green Bay upset yet another higher-seeded team in the NFC Playoffs?

Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Atlanta Falcons (13-3)

Where: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia

When: Jan. 15th, 2011 at 8:00 pm EST

TV: FOX

NFL Betting Line

Green Bay Packers +2 ½ -110 O 44 ½ -110

Atlanta Falcons -2 ½ -110 U 44 ½ -110

Check out some trends in this game.

• The Green Bay Packers are 8 and 3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
• The Green Bay Packers are 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 road games.
• The Atlanta Falcons are 7 and 1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
• The Atlanta Falcons are 5 and 1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS victory.

Only 55% of NFL playoff betting fans are backing the Falcons to cover what has become a 2-point spread. That’s right. While writing this, the spread on the GB vs. ATL game has gone from Atlanta -2 ½ to Atlanta -2.

The spread could go back up, of course, there’s plenty of time before they kick-off in the Georgia Dome, but more likely the spread will continue to drop. By the time the two teams actually hit the field on Saturday, I wouldn’t be surprised if the spread was even.

Green Bay turned a lot of heads after last week’s straight up victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. The Packers’ defense held the Eagles to a total of 82 yards on the ground. They kept QB Michael Vick to under 300 yards passing and only 33 yards on the ground. Against the Falcons the first time, GB kept Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan from throwing for 200 yards. Ryan was 24 out of 28 for 197 yards and 1 TD. They also kept the Falcons’ rushing attack from going for more than 117 yards.

Those numbers don’t seem impressive, right? Well, they aren’t until NFL playoff betting handicappers realize that the Packers were on their way to a victory over Atlanta with their best defensive player, Clay Matthews, ineffective because of an injury. Green Bay scored a TD with 56 second left in the first game to tie the Falcons at 17 a piece. Somehow, Atlanta found a way to score a field goal with 9 seconds on the clock for the victory.

A hurt Matthews may have helped Atlanta’s cause in that game. Matthews won’t be hurt on Saturday. In fact, Matthews had 3 solo tackles and a sack versus the Eagles last week. He’s recorded 13 ½ sacks this season and could find things much easier chasing Matt Ryan than he did chasing the incredibly quick Michael Vick.

On offense, there aren’t many better than Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers recorded a 122.5 QB rating versus the Eagles last Sunday. He threw for 344 yards and a TD for a 114.5 QB rating the first time the Packers faced the Falcons. Aaron should have a terrific game against an Atlanta secondary that allows 226.6 yards per game threw the air on average.

What does it all add up to? Another NFL playoff betting wager on the moneyline. The Packers are at +120 to beat Atlanta straight up on Sunday. I believe that they do exactly that.

NFL Betting Pick: Green Bay Packers +120 on the moneyline

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