NFL Picks – Week 14: Pats, Falcons, Steelers Down the Stretch

In our NFL picks for Week 14 this week, we are going to take a special look at the New England Patriots, Atlanta Falcons and Pittsburgh Steelers, all of which are driving hard down the stretch, hoping to be in contention for home field advantage in the playoffs. There is also the issue of what effect a new, interim coach is going to have with the Denver Broncos and who the Arizona cardinals are going to use at quarterback.  We discuss it in our NFL picks for Week 14.

December 12, 2010

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at CHICAGO BEARS
4:15 PM ET — Soldier Field, Chicago

Odds for NFL Picks – Week 14
New England -3
Chicago +3
Total 40.5

When you looked at the Patriots on Monday night, they looked like a team no one could ever beat. i don’t know how many better MVP candidates there are than Tom Brady (27 TD’s, four INT’s), but I would venture to say not that many. This week, however, they face not a Jets offense that is prone to total collapse at times, but a Bear attack that has really developed some balance, with Matt Forte running juts well enough to allow Jay Cutler to find the receivers who are catching on to Mike Martz’s system. Jay Cutler, who was under siege earlier in the season, is still getting sacked a bit (four times in each of the last two games), but he has also chalked up quarterback ratings of 146.2 and 117 in the last two weeks. And the Bears defense has allowed 90 less yards per game than has New England. Of course, Brady is a great equalizer of sorts, and if you look at his stats you’ll see that he has 13 TD’s and just two interceptions on the road. But we’re looking at snow and high winds on Sunday, and that makes the Chicago stop unit even more important.

NFL PICKS – WEEK 14:   CHICAGO +3

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ATLANTA FALCONS at CAROLINA PANTHERS
1 PM ET — Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte

Odds for NFL Picks Week 14:
Atlanta -7
Carolina +7
Total  42.5

You know, I would really like to have a reason to go with Carolina grabbing these points, and we’re almost there when you consider that this team has moved the ball pretty well on the ground. But all of this has still produced just a one-win season, where the Panthers have covered only one of their last six games and three covers overall. And Jimmy Clausen, who has made six starts as a pro and has only one touchdown pass to show for it, doesn’t look like the type who, at this stage of his career, is going to make the Falcon defense (which has allowed 4.3 yards a carry) play honestly.  Atlanta generally doesn’t make plays to beat itself, and this is a Panther team that has been beaten by more than a touchdown nine times, with one covering effort at Bank of America Stadium.

NFL PICK – WEEK 14:  ATLANTA -7

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DENVER BRONCOS at ARIZONA CARDINALS
4:15 PM ET — University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ

Odds for NFL Picks – Week 14:
Denver -5
Arizona +5
Total  42

As we write this, Derek Anderson has not been cleared to play, after suffering a concussion last week. If it wasn’t such a sick joke, we might suggest that he has been dazed all season long (51.7%, seven TD’s). In the last three weeks, they have scored 25 points, and it has been a while since they won, and even then they needed lots of help from Drew Brees to make that happen. This team is 24.4% on third down in the last seven games, all of which were defeats. I can’t imagine that improving with either rookie John Skelton (who?) or practice squad guy Richard Bartel (who?) likely to start.  Denver has a few things Arizona doesn’t: a win in their last seven games (the rout of Kansas City), a quarterback who can perform in the NFL (Kyle Orton) and a running game that works better too. They also have a new coach named Eric Studesville (who?), although we don’t know if he brings a fresh touch the way Jason Garrett or Leslie Frazier did in their respective locations. It’s a good bet Studesville isn’t really auditioning for the "permanent" job. And no, though it may seem appropriate, the Who will not be performing at halftime.

NFL PICK – WEEK 14:  DENVER -5

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CINCINNATI BENGALS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS
1 PM ET — Heinz Field, Pittsburgh

Odds for NFL Picks – Week 14:
Pittsburgh -8.5
Cincinnati +8.5
Total  39.5

I must admit to being somewhat wrong about the Cincinnati Bengals. I really expected them to fold the tent completely after falling apart in the second halves of games against the Bills and Jets. But they never gave up against new new Orleans Saints last week, scoring 18 points in the fourth quarter and really putting a hot New Orleans team on the ropes until the final moments. last time out against Pittsburgh they got off to an awful start, but came on to have a chance to win it straight-up in the end. I’m not expecting them to roll over against this hated rival, by any means. What else on Ben Roethlisberger’s body will break next?

NFL PICKS – WEEK 14:  CINCINNATI +8.5

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