NFL Picks: Desperate Dolphins Host Bills and T.O. Show

Buffalo Bills (-2) vs. Miami Dolphins (+2)
O/U (37)
Sunday, October 4 4:00 PM ET

The Miami Dolphins (0-3 S-U, 0-3 ATS, 1-2 O/U ) will be looking to record their first win of the season when the host the division rival Buffalo Bills ( 1-2 S-U, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U ) and Terrell Owens at Land Shark Stadium on Sunday at 4 PM ET.

The Bills will be looking to bounce back from their convincing 27-7 loss to New Orleans as a 5.5-point underdog in Week 3.

Trent Edwards completed 20 of 35 passes for 156 yards with no touchdowns and one interception for Buffalo while Fred Jackson rushed for 71 yards on 81 carries and the game’s final score played well Under the 51.5-point O/U total.

Owens failed to record a catch for the first time in 185-games, a streak that was the longest of any active player and third longest in league history.

The Dolphins lost to the San Diego Chargers 23-13 as a 5.5-point underdog in Week 3 while the game’s final score played Under the 45.5-point O/U total.

Ronnie Brown rushed for 75 yards on 18 carries for Miami and Ricky Williams rushed for 55 yards and a touchdown on eight carries, but more importantly, starting quarterback Chad Pennington suffered a season-ending – and possibly, career-ending, injury in the loss.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends and NFL Betting Odds, followed by my in-depth analysis and expert NFL Free Picks.

• Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
• Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
• Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.
• Dolphins are 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 home games.
• Dolphins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
• Dolphins are 8-21-2 ATS in their last 31 vs. AFC East.
• Under is 5- 1 in the last 6 meetings.
• Bills are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
• Under is 5- 2 in the last 7 meetings in Miami.

NFL Odds

• Buffalo Bills -2 Ev
• Miami Dolphins +2 -120
• Over 37 -110
• Under 37 -110

Analysis: While the Miami Dolphins are in total desperation mode coming into this contest and will be playing at home, I like the Buffalo Bills to win this game and move to an even 2-2 SU on the young season.

With Miami losing its starting quarterback and having to turn to young Chad Henne, the Fins will likely be playing behind the eight-ball for the majority of this matchup.

Buffalo has some very strong trends that suggest an easy cover as the Bills have gone a spotless 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an SU loss and an identical 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.

While the Dolphins have gone a discouraging 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss and just 8-21-2 ATS in their last 31 games against their AFC East rivals, Buffalo has gone an impressive 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home and a solid 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings against Miami.

With the Under going 5- 1 in the last six meetings and 5- 2 in the last seven meetings in Miami, I also say play the Under in this matchup.

Take the Bills for the easy cover with the outright road win and the Under BetOnline NFL sports betting members.

NFL Free Picks: Bills -2 Points/Under 37 Total Points