NFL Picks – Desperate Cowboys Take On Vikings

In our NFL betting picks for Sunday, we consider that two of the teams everybody thought would be prime contenders for the Super Bowl – the Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings – are desperate at the moment and square off at the Metrodome in Minneapolis, with game time slated for 4:15 PM ET.

Brett Favre is going through a rough patch, as he is the subject of an investigation by the NFL and is hurting with tendinitis in his elbow.

The Vikings are listed as a 1.5-point favorite in the NFL betting odds, with the total listed at 45 points, and that is where we start when we get ready to give you our NFL picks for this weekend.

[Off topic: by the way, do you want to get a 55% bonus on your first deposit here at BetOnline? If so JOIN NOW.]

Dallas Cowboys (1-3 SU & ATS) at Minnesota Vikings (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS)

Live at The Metrodome

Minneapolis, MN

Sunday, October 17– 4:15 PM ET

TV: Fox

NFL Betting Odds:

Minnesota -1.5

Dallas +1.5

Total 45

Here are some of the trends as they impact our NFL picks on this game:

• Dallas has played eleven of its last 15 games UNDER the total
• Dallas has lost four of its last five games SU
• Dallas has covered one of its last five games
• Dallas has played its last five road games UNDER the total
• Minnesota has played ten of its last 14 games UNDER the total
• Minnesota has lost four of its last five games SU
• Minnesota has own ten of its last 11 home games SU
• Minnesota has played seven of its last eight home games UNDER the total

Key stats for Dallas — The Cowboys have chalked up 93 first downs compared to 72 for the opposition. They have outgained their opponents by an average of 117 yards per game.

Dallas also has a tremendous positive ratio between the third down conversion of its own offense (43.1%) and that of its opponents (26.7%). at the same time, they have been penalized 22 times more than their foes, for 189 more yards, and the secondary has intercepted only two passes.

Miles Austin is the leading receiver, catching 31 passes for 474 yards, and Tony Romo has logged 7.7 yards an attempt. Felix Jones is now the team’s leading rusher, with 197 yards.

Key stats for Minnesota — The Vikings can obviously run the ball. Adrian Peterson has averaged 5.5 yards a carry, but other parts of this team haven’t functioned as well. Brett Favre threw three TD passes against the Jets on Monday night, but he also tossed that very critical interception, and he is less than 57% accurate.

The pass rush has lacked, with only six sacks. The four yards per rush that Minnesota gives up would be acceptable for some teams, but it is below their standard. But opposing teams have not stretched out their secondary too much, averaging only 5.6 yards per pass attempt.

Here are the head-to-head betting trends as they involve our NFL picks on this game:

• Minnesota has won and covered six of the last seven meetings
• Five of the last six meetings have gone UNDER the total
• Minnesota has won four of the last five meetings SU as the home team
• Minnesota has covered the last five meetings as the home team
• Four of the last five meetings in Minneapolis have gone UNDER the total

…And by the way, make your NFL picks and college selections with parlays of 16 through 20 teams for huge payouts at BetOnline Sportsbook!

When you look at the teams Minnesota has played, the Saints (from the opener) was a team that was clearly out of sync, and they still haven’t gotten their act totally together. The Dolphins, Lions and Jets don’t stretch defenses, but the Cowboys do.

Dallas is a team that, as we mentioned when we went over the stats, is very high-functioning but has beaten itself with penalties. That could indeed happen again, but if it doesn’t, there may be some value here with our NFL picks. Tony Romo may have to speed up his throws, but with a quartet of legitimate receivers, he’s got the equipment to put a lot of pressure on the Minnesota secondary.

We were told last week that we would see a lot of Felix Jones, and we did. He had 109 yards on the ground against Tennessee.

Minnesota showed some life on offense as it was rallying in the second half against the Jets. But the Vikings had shown nothing for most of the game, and were not much of an NFL pick in the end. Randy Moss will be around for Brett Favre to throw long balls to, but Moss, as was explained by Jon Gruden during the Monday night game, is not really familiar with the West Coast offense as it is practiced in the pros.

Favre and this offense could not get out of their own way in the first half against the Jets, and he looks like he’s back to the form that he was displaying a couple of years ago, when he threw a ton of interceptions.

I hear him talking about the pain in his elbow, and we know about the pain in the ankle, which makes him vulnerable to Demarcus Ware (six sacks), and knowing what we do about the pending NFL investigation, and I wonder whether Favre might be just looking for an excuse to quit.

After all, he was dragged into playing this season in the first place, and his team needs to lose only this game and one of the next three against Green Bay, New England or Arizona to take itself out of serious contention for the division title. It’s a good thing for him that he has a defense that is playing with some spirit.

We’re taking the short number with the Cowboys in our NFL picks for this weekend.

JAY’S PLAY: DALLAS +1.5 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

Bet your own NFL picks this week at BetOnline Sportsbook, click here!