NFL Picks – Chargers Stumbling And Here Comes Brady

As we do our NFL picks for this weekend, we can’t help but notice that the San Diego Chargers are stumbling as they proceed in the AFC West, and now, with a 2-4 record, here comes Tom Brady with the New England Patriots, invading Qualcomm Stadium (natural turf) on Sunday afternoon.

The game is slated to kick off at 4:15 PM ET, and the Chargers have been established as a 2.5-point favorite in the sportsbook betting odds, with a total of 47.5 points. We’ll use those numbers as we give you our NFL picks for this game. 

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New England Patriots (4-1 SU, 2-2-1 ATS) at San Diego Chargers (2-4 SU & ATS)

Live at Qualcomm Stadium

San Diego, CA

Sunday, October 24–  4:15 PM ET

TV:  CBS

Odds for NFL Picks:

San Diego -2.5

New England +2.5

Total  47.5

Here are some of the trends as they impact our NFL picks on this game:

• New England has won four of its last five games SU
• New England has played six of its last seven games OVER the total
• New England has lost five of its last seven road games SU
• San Diego has won 13 of its last 18 games SU
• San Diego is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight games
• San Diego has played four of its last five games OVER the total
• San Diego has lost five of its last seven games SU
• San Diego has played six of its last seven home games OVER the total
• San Diego has won seven of its last eight home games SU

The Chargers simply laid down last week at St. Louis, as the Rams held them to 287 total yards. It was admittedly a bad spot for them on the schedule, and as we compile our NFL picks we recognize that Phillip Rivers, who has 12 TD passes and has averaged more than NINE yards a pass attempt, is having a very productive season. It is kind of amazing that the Chargers are outgaining opponents to the tune of 433-255 per game on average, yet have lost four of the six games they’ve played. But there have been a number of mistakes on the special teams, and more penalties than can be expected, so the Chargers, in one respect, have beaten themselves.

Here are the head-to-head betting trends as they influence our NFL picks on this game:

• Four of the last six meetings have gone UNDER the total
• New England has won eight of the last eleven meetings SU

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The Patriots are coming off an overtime win over Baltimore, which followed division wins over the Bills and Dolphins, then the bye week. They have begun life without Randy Moss, and toward that end they picked up Deion Branch, who had won a Super Bowl MVP for them. Branch caught nine passes for 98 yards, and Danny Woodhead (6.4 yards per carry) caught five passes, and Brady, very much like Peyton Manning in Indianapolis, is a guy who can improvise with whatever receivers he has on hand, something that can’t be lost on us in the process of contemplating our NFL picks.

Rivers is one of those guys too, but he’s got some guys who are limping. Antonio Gates, with a painful toe injury, is a game-time decision, and Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Nannee, who have 35 catches between them, have been missing time with hamstring injuries. We’re not saying these guys won’t play, or that Rivers couldn’t somehow make do if he had to ad lib a little, but New England is the healthier side, as well as the team that exercises better fundamentals, and as long as Brady and Branch don’t get amnesia form all the time they spent together, and BenJarvis Green-Ellis can be a serviceable fill-in at running back, we can feel good about taking the points with the Pats in our NFL picks for Sunday.

JAY’S PLAY:  NEW ENGLAND +2.5 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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