NFL Picks – Titans, Giants Coming Off Defeats

In our NFL picks for Sunday we focus in on the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants; two teams who looked impressive in beating lesser teams in the first week of the NFL season, but then disappointed greatly in Week 2. One of them has a quarterback controversy, while the other had a player who can seem to hold on to his helmet. The game takes place at 1 PM ET on Sunday at the new Meadowlands Stadium (artificial turf) in East Rutherford, NJ, and televised on CBS. In the NFL betting odds, the Giants are a three-point favorite, with the total posted at 42.5 points.

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Tennessee Titans (1-1 SU & ATS) at New York Giants (1-1 SU & ATS)
Live at Meadowlands Stadium
East Rutherford, NJ
Sunday, September 26 –  1 PM ET
TV:  CBS

NFL Betting Odds:
N.Y. Giants -3
Tennessee +3
Total  42.5

In case you were wondering whether it was possible to snuff out Chris Johnson, the answer is yes, as the Steelers did it last week at LP Field in their 19-11 win over Tennessee. Johnson had 34 yards in 16 carries, which many people would not have thought possible. Does this factor into our NFL picks for this game? I would say we couldn’t avoid it. The question is whether the Giants’ front seven has the wherewithal to be able to do the same.

Both of these teams are essentially the same, in that they like to play defense and control the ball on the ground. The Giants are probably a little better equipped in the passing game, with a more formidable set of receivers. But if you can’t protect your quarterback, it doesn’t matter. Eli Manning had Colts in his face the whole evening, and suffered four sacks. Brandon Jacobs, who was supposed to be more useful in the running game, gained eight yards on four carries and threw his helmet into the stands. The fan who caught it wanted to keep it, like a foul ball in baseball. Here’s something to use in your NFL picks – in their two games, the Giants have been outscored by a 40-14 margin in the first half. In Johnson is on his game, and the Titans get off to a lead, they can play keep-away

Here are some of the trends as they impact NFL picks on this game:

• Tennessee has played four of its last six games OVER the total
• Tennessee has won nine of its last 12 games SU
• Tennessee has covered one of its last five games
• Tennessee has played 12 of its last 18 road games UNDER the total
• Tennessee has lost seven of its last ten road games SU
• Tennessee has covered two of its last seven road games

• New York has played its last seven games OVER the total
• New York has lost nine of its last 13 games SU
• New York has covered three of its last 13 games
• New York has played its last five home games OVER the total
• New York has won 12 of its last 18 home games SU
• New York has covered two of its last seven home games
• Tennessee has won and covered four of the last five meetings

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Vince Young was not impressive for the Titans last week, and he was yanked from the game after throwing two interceptions and losing a fumble. Kerry Collins was sent into the fray, threw for 149 yards and a touchdown, tossed an interception and was sacked twice. Coach Jeff Fisher has asserted that Young will start on Sunday, and he has often responded to such situations. Generally, having the mobility of Young should mitigate the effects of an active pass rush, but Young’s decision-making ability must be good.

I will say this much – after giving the ball away seven times against Pittsburgh, Tennessee found itself with a chance to tie the game very late, but just ran out of time. Do you think they’re going to turn it over seven times again? I would not base my NFL picks on things like that. In a sense, that’s why I am somewhat hesitant to lay the points here – the Giants are in no way fundamentally superior, and there has been the hint of some dysfunction on the basis of complaints by players. Perhaps these guys are jealous that the Jets were the subject of the HBO reality show, not them. Remember that Manning has not been so mistake-free (four INT’s), and the Giants are not so automatic at home (covering just two of last seven). We prefer to take any points available, and will. Our NFL picks dictate that we go with Tennessee, the three-point underdog in the NFL betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY:  TENNESSEE +3 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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