NFL Picks – The Wildcat Returns!! Chicago vs. Miami on Thursday Night

Chances are that if you were to make your NFL betting picks knowing that Tyler Thigpen was going to start for your Football club, you would do a Pete Rose, and bet against yourself! On Thursday night, the Thigpen-led Fins entertain the Chicago Bears, who are fresh off an impressive win over Division rival, Minnesota.

CHICAGO BEARS (6-3) vs. MIAMI DOLPHINS (5-4)

Thursday, November 18, 8:20 PM ET

Sun Life Stadium, Miami, Florida

Broadcast: NFL Network

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NFL Picks Lines:

Chicago: + 1 ½ (-110)

Miami: -1 ½ (-110)

Moneyline: OFF

Total: 40 ½ points

There is no way that a month ago the Chicago Bears would be an NFL Picks leader of the NFC North, but a recent hot streak has put them in a tie with the Green Bay Packers. Decent offensive play and typically solid defensive play has the Bears three games above .500, looking to go four.

Chicago’s early season slump had everything to do with Jay Cutler, his decision making and the lack of protection that was afforded him. In his last two games, Cutler has only been sacked twice and he has only turned the ball over twice. Cutler and the Chicago offense currently have the 20th ranked passing game and the 23rd ranked running game.

Chicago’s defense has been the stabilizing force behind this team – period! They are giving up 219.56 yards through the air per game (15th in the NFL) and are surrendering just 82.23 yards per game on the ground (2nd in the league). This is a unit that generated four turnovers last week against the Vikings and held Adrian Peterson to just 51 yards on the ground!

It is shocking that the Dolphins are an NFL Picks favorite to win Thursday night’s game but it speaks to the resolve and the complete nature of this team. True they have four losses on the year, but those came against the Jets, the Patriots, the Steelers and the Ravens. Now they will turn to their third string quarterback in what is essentially a must-win game.

Miami has had a fairly balanced offense all season long. They rank 13th in passing and a rather underwhelming 19th in rushing. With Thigpen at the helm, expect less passing and more running. Ronny Brown and Ricky Williams will have to be featured heavily as will the Wildcat offense in order to take the onus off of the largely unproven pivot. Will it be easy – absolutely not! The Bears have held their opponents to 82 yards per game on the ground this season.

The passing game takes a hit for sure but reality is that Thigpen isn’t an enormous step down for this club. Brandon Marshall, Davone Bess, Brian Hartline and Anthony Fasano are all capable pass catchers that should make life easier for Thigpen.

The Miami defense has been hot and cold this season – hot against the pass (6th ranked) and cold against the run (16th ranked). Where they have been successful is in their ability to get to the quarterback. The team as a whole has 23 sacks and Cameron Wake is responsible for 8 ½ himself (the Bears have 12 total sacks as a team). Getting to Jay Cutler will be crucial in this game for the Dolphins to have a chance.

NFL Picks Outlook:

The Chicago Bears are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games but just 2-3-1 ATS in their last six. On the road, the Bears are 8-15 SU in their last 23 and 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14. However, Chicago is 4-1 SU in their last five on the road and they are 4-1 ATS as underdogs.

The Miami Dolphins are 1-5 SU in their last six home games and are just 5-12 in their last 17 on home turf. However, the Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

Miami appears to be in a lot of trouble but Thigpen’s relief appearance in their win last week gives the fans reason for optimism – he went 4/6 for 64 yards and a touchdown. The Dolphins defensive strength is getting to the quarterback and we all know what happens to Jay Cutler when he is being pressured. The home team on a short week always has the edge and I think the Fins will rally behind Tyler Thigpen and shock the Chicago Bears.

NFL Pick: Miami Dolphins – 1 ½