NFL Picks – The Rivalry Continues With Manning Versus Brady

The most difficult game in NFL betting picks is undoubtedly the mega tilt between the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots this weekend. From Brady and Belichik to the cerebral undertaking of player-coach Peyton Manning, this game has all the makings of being a great game, but the number is inching away from the Colts on the road.

Speaking of numbers, the digits “four” and “two” have significant meaning in this series. Obviously the “4th and 2” call from last year’s affair went down in history for being one of the most questionable/unquestionable calls and killed a lot of NFL picks since most people took the Patriots straight up. The Colts are also 4-2 ATS in their last 6 meetings with their biggest rivals, and are inversely 2-4 SU and ATS in their last 6 road games.

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Brady is also head hunting for his fourth Super Bowl ring, while Peyton Manning is on a quest for his second. This is also the first time in four years that this game has been held at Gillette Stadium. The line on this game is slowly, but surely, crawling away from Peyton Manning and his Colts due to a bevy of injuries. Strangely enough, this number on this game has settled on -4.0 for the home bound Patriots.

The fact that New England is at home should sway a lot of people in their NFL picks. And rightfully so. Straight up in NFL Picks, the Patriots are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games, 13-1 SU in their past 14 home games and are also 9-2 SU in their last 11 meetings with Indianapolis. A creeping number might entice you to make the Patriots in your NFL picks.

Can Peyton Manning convince you otherwise?

Indianapolis Colts (6-3) New England Patriots (7-2)

Sunday, November 20th — Gillette Stadium — 4:15pm EST

NFL Betting Line: Indianapolis -4 (50)

It really doesn’t matter who Peyton has on the field. What we’ve realized this season more than any other is that the difference between a good quarterback and a great one is that they make any player look like a superstar. That being said, the biggest difference maker in NFL picks for this game is actually Reggie Wayne who is undoubtedly the best skill player in this matchup. He’s also the one who caught the game winning touchdown in this matchup last year.

The Patriots defense has found some interior anchors with Patrick Chung at safety and Jared Mayo at linebacker but the New England scoring defense is still ranked 24th in the league with 23.8 points per game. They also allow the 30th most passing yards at home with 286.0 yards surrendered on average.

A lot of people are screaming that New England is the best team in the league because they throttled the Steelers. Hold on a second there, cowboy. Part of the reason that they won that game is because Hines Ward wasn’t permitted back in the game due to a neck injury. A lot of offenses fail to live up to their billing when their top receiver goes down.

Which is why your NFL picks shouldn’t just revolve around Manning and Brady – they should factor the Reggie Wayne element in. The Pats don’t have a game breaker in NFL picks on the field. The Law Firm is a solid runner, but has no breakout speed. Their bevy of receivers can get open, but the Indianapolis secondary is alright despite injuries.

The injuries on Indianapolis’s defense are alarming but this is also one of the best coached teams in the league. Clint Sessions hasn’t practiced all week, and neither has Gary Brackett. Tom Brady’s day might be a whole lot easier when it comes to ripping apart Indy’s defense, although you could easily make the counter argument that the Colts know Brady extremely well at this point.

Keep New England’s season in perspective. Their offense came alive against Pittsburgh, but they also follow up big wins with questionable efforts. They beat the crap out of Cincinnati in the first week of NFL picks and were then murdered by the Jets. A blowout win against Miami was followed up by a not-so-great effort against Baltimore and a near-loss to San Diego. Their follow-up performance after throttling Minnesota led to a loss against Cleveland.

See? They’re not as trustworthy as you think. That’s what happens when the only viable superstar is your quarterback. Nobody outside of a few offensive lineman are going to make the Pro Bowl for New England.

Indianapolis has mostly been skimping by with a little skin on their teeth, but they’re still a very worthy NFL picks team. At just 2-9 SU in their last 11 games in New England, they have a lot of making up to do. On the road, they’re 2-3 ATS, but are a very strong cover team in NFL picks when they’re listed as an underdog (mostly because it never happens).

New England has issues when they’re front running like they are now. Indianapolis knows full well that they have to step up their game because of the injuries to various stars, and while I’m nervous about the numbers, trends and stats, I think that Peyton Manning is just a no-brainer in big games.

Everyone and their grandmother will pile on New England in their NFL picks this weekend, but I’m going against the grain largely because I think people are overvaluing the Patriots (albeit not by much) and are underestimating just how good Manning and the Colts defense is. Their one weakness is rush defense, but the Pats aren’t good enough on the ground to take advantage of that.

In the end, you have to go with your gut in this game. I have my inklings about New England, and as the number slides away from Indianapolis and Manning, I like this game more and more for them in NFL picks.

NFL Picks – Indianapolis +4.0 (OVER)

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