NFL Picks – Colts, Broncos Look for Momentum

Those making NFL picks for the coming weekend know that the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos did not get off to a great start, but with wins in Week 2 they will try to get some momentum going from this point forward, starting with a game against each other, which is scheduled to kick off at 4:15 PM ET on Sunday at Invesco Field (natural turf) in Denver. In the NFL betting odds, the Colts are a 5.5-point road favorite, with a posted total of 48 points. What will our NFL picks have to say about this one?

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Indianapolis Colts (1-1 SU & ATS) at Denver Broncos (1-1 SU & ATS)
Live at Invesco Field at Mile High
Denver, CO
Sunday, September 26 –  4:15 PM ET
TV: CBS

NFL Betting Odds:
Indianapolis -5.5
Denver +5.5
Total  48

Here are some of the trends as they may impact our NFL picks on this game:

• Indianapolis has played seven of its last nine games OVER the total
• Indianapolis has won 17 of its last 21 games SU
• Indianapolis has played five of its last six road games OVER the total
• Indianapolis has won eleven of its last 14 road games SU

• Denver has played six of its last seven games OVER the total
• Denver has lost five of its last six games SU
• Denver has covered two of its last six games
• Denver has covered five of its last 17 home games
• Denver has played eleven of its last 15 home games UNDER the total

Denver did pretty well last week against Seattle in redeeming itself for that Week 1 loss at Jacksonville. And we’re happy that they were one of our NFL picks. Kyle Orton certainly was on the money, throwing for 307 yards and two touchdowns. But the Broncos are not getting a lot of the running game. Look at the pitiful numbers on the part of Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter – they’ve combined for 145 yards on 56 carries thus far. That’s bound to put them into trouble against the Colts, who can be muscled around a bit but probably not by this crew.

Indy dominated things from about the word "go" against the Giants, getting off to a 24-0 halftime lead and cruising to a 38-14 win, and unfortunately for us, that was NOT one of our NFL picks.. The Colts even had a ground game, as Joseph Addai had 92 yards and Donald Brown added 69. Not that Peyton Manning really needs much help from his running backs under normal circumstances; he’s yet to throw an interception yet and has completed 72% for almost 700 yards.

Here are the head-to-head betting trends as they involve our NFL picks on this game:

• The last six meetings have gone OVER the total
• Indianapolis has won and covered five of the last six meetings
• Denver has won five of the last seven meetings SU as the home team

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There is no doubt that Indianapolis is one of the top NFL picks to go to the Super Bowl; in fact, they are +400 in the NFL betting odds to win the AFC, and that makes them the favorite, despite their opening-week loss to Houston. Manning is just so relentless that even when you think you’re getting the better of him he is going to roll by you just by virtue of the cumulative effect of his effort. A case in point might be last year’s meeting. Manning was intercepted three times by the Denver secondary, suffered three sacks, and completed less than half his passes, yet the Colts still won 28-16. Do you think the Broncos will get so lucky as to hold down Peyton against like that? Good luck, without Elvis Dumervil in the lineup to provide his unique brand of pressure.

Dumervil’s absence is most definitely a factor in our NFL picks. And speaking of pressure, what about the Colts’ pair of defensive ends – Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney – and the kind of trouble they could create for Orton if the Broncos don’t get a ground game uncorked? Okay – even if the very capable Ryan Clady slowed down Freeney, what about the other guy? And keep in mind that the Colts set out to fix some of the problems they had in their rushing defense after Week 1 and showed a marked improvement against the Giants. Laying 5.5 points on the road in the NFL betting odds is a lot, but Indy has won eleven of its last 14 on the road, and I don’t think Denver can match the preponderance of firepower here. We’re moving with Peyton Manning and the Colts in our NFL picks for Sunday.

JAY’S PLAY:  INDIANAPOLIS -5.5 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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