NFL Picks – Chiefs Hope “New” Arrowhead Brings New Attitude

As we make our NFL picks for the Monday night games, we take note that the Kansas City Chiefs are hoping that the "new" Arrowhead Stadium (natural turf), which has been through an extensive remodeling, will help bring a new attitude to this team that has not had a home field edge. The Chiefs will play host to the San Diego Chargers in the second of two games scheduled for Monday night; this one will kick off at 10:15 PM ET. In the NFL betting odds, the Chargers are 4.5-point favorites, with the total posted at 45 points. We will make our NFL picks based on that line.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

Live at Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City, MO

Monday, September 13 — 10:15 PM ET

TV: ESPN

Odds for NFL Picks:

San Diego -4.5

Kansas City +4.5

Total: 45

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Here are some of the trends as they impact the NFL betting odds on this game:

• San Diego has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
• San Diego has won eleven of its last 12 games SU
• San Diego is 2-3-1 ATS in its last six games
• San Diego has won its last six road games SU
• Kansas City has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
• Kansas City has lost five of its last six games SU
• Kansas City has covered two of its last six games
• Kansas City has covered one of its last five home games
• Kansas City has lost 13 of its last 14 home games SU
• Kansas City has played 15 of its last 22 home games OVER the total

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Head-to-head history counts sometimes when formulating one’s NFL picks. Those were two thorough beatings issued by San Diego over this Kansas City team last year. The scores were 37-7 and 43-14, and in neither game was KC able to get much of a passing attack going. The Chiefs went and hired a new offensive coordinator in Charlie Weis, who will probably have Matt Cassel throwing more downfield, if the former Patriot QB is capable of it. Kansas City has brought aboard new weapons to work with; namely Dexter McCluster, the rookie from Ole Miss who can outrun a lot of defenses, and Thomas Jones, who will combine with Jamaal Charles to give the Chiefs a running game that many teams would envy.

Here are some of the head-to-head NFL betting trends with regard to our NFL picks:

• San Diego has won the last five meetings SU
• Kansas City has won 14 of the last 20 meetings SU as the home team
• San Diego has won four of the last six meetings SU as the road team

Another factor in doing our NFL picks is trends, when they mean something. In the case of the Chiefs, they have lost 13 of their last 14 games at home. Teams are not intimidated in the least when going into Arrowhead, where at one time the Chiefs were almost unbeatable as a home underdog. However, there may be still other factors that make a difference, and those involve the current state of the teams. The Chargers will be going into this game without their top wide receiver, Vincent Jackson, who is holding out, and left tackle Marcus McNeill, who is doing the same. So there are questions on the offensive line and in the receiving corps, and the Chargers will be starting a rookie running back as well, albeit a talented one (Ryan Matthews). Keep in mind also that San Diego has been a great finisher over the last several years, but can get off to slow starts. Maybe this time slower even than usual. We’re taking the points with the Kansas City Chiefs in our NFL pick for Monday night.

JAY’S PLAY: KANSAS CITY +4.5 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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