NFL Picks – Can Carolina Cover the Enormous Spread?

The art of NFL Picks is difficult except when a 2-11 Carolina team is facing a motivated 10-4 Pittsburgh team. The result isn’t in question but the huge spread could be in danger. The Carolina Panthers are coming off a rare win and the Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a heartbreaking home loss.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (2-12) vs. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (10-4)
Thursday, December 23, 8:20 PM ET
Heinz Field, Pittsburgh Pennsylvania
Broadcast: NFL Network

NFL Picks Lines:

Carolina: +14 ½ (-110)
Pittsburgh: -14 ½ (-110)

Moneyline: Carolina +750: Pittsburgh -1200

Total: 37 points

The Carolina Panthers ended an NFL Picks seven game losing streak with a 19-12 win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15. The Panthers rode a typical run heavy offense to victory on Sunday but this week, their formula for “success” will be seriously challenged by the Top rated run defense in the NFL.

Carolina has rushed for over 100 yards in seven straight games culminating in Jonathan Stewart’s 137 yards effort last week. The Panthers currently own the NFL’s 12th ranked rushing offense averaging nearly 117 yards per game on the ground. The Steelers are giving up nearly half that per game on the ground.

The way to beat the Steelers is through the air. Too bad for the Panthers they own the worst passing offense in the NFL with just 149.29 yards per game.

The Steelers are a huge NFL Picks favorite ahead of their Thursday night game and rightfully so. The Steelers have a lot to play for – there is a first round bye and there is a little redemption for their heartbreaking loss last week. With the Pittsburgh offense struggling, the Pittsburgh defense will be called upon once again to do the necessary damage against the Panthers.

The Steelers have the 18th ranked passing game in the NFL (213.50 yards per game) and the 8th ranked running game in the league (122.14 yards per game). However, the offense has struggled – the team is averaging just 18 points per game in their last four. Heath Miller will boost the passing game that boasts one of the hottest receivers in the NFL, Mike Wallace who has 23 catches and 256 yards in his last three games.

In what is sure to be inclement weather, expect a heavy dose of Rashard Mendenhall this week. He has 1173 yards rushing this season and 10 touchdowns.

Pittsburgh’s defense will likely be without Troy Polamalu again this week. However, the Steelers will be just fine. They are the best team against the run in the NFL and their Achilles heel, the passing defense (24th ranked – 228.43 yards per game) likely won’t be tested by the NFL’s worst passing offense.

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NFL Picks Outlook:

The Carolina Panthers are 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. They are 0-5 SU in their last five games on the road and are 2-4 ATS in their last six away from home. Carolina is just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as underdog and 0-5 ATS against teams with winning records.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 4-1 SU in their last five games and are 16-5 SU in their last 21 games at home. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with losing record.

There is absolutely no doubt who will win this game but I think that the spread is too rich. I could see, in bad weather, this being a 20-10 type of game. With the Steelers offense struggling, I don’t think that they will score enough to warrant a 14 ½ point spread. I like the Steelers to win but the Panthers to cover. I also like the Under in this game – two struggling offenses in inclement weather.

NFL Picks: Carolina Panthers to cover the 14 ½ points and the Under