NFL Parlay Picks – Alternative Lines for Jets-Pats Game

In our NFL parlay picks for the Monday night game, we thought we might play around a little with the alternative lines that are available for betting on the game between the New England Patriots and the New York Jets.

Maybe you’re the type who wants to get a little extra on one end or the other, and perhaps you have a strong opinion on the total in the game. If so, you may want to look into it.

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The kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 PM ET at Gillette Stadium (artificial turf) in Foxborough, MA, and in the lines we may want to use in our NFL parlay picks, the Jets are a 14.5-point underdog, with the total on the game set at 51.5 points, or 38.5 points, whichever you prefer.

NFL Parlay Picks

New York Jets (9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS) at New England Patriots (9-2 SU, 6-4-1 ATS)

Live at Gillette Stadium

Foxborough, MA

Monday, December 6 — 8:30 PM ET

TV: ESPN

NFL Parlay Picks – Alternative Lines:

New England -7.5 (+150)
N.Y. Jets +14.5 (-600)

Total 51.5 (Under -250, Over +185)

Total 44.5 (Under -110, Over -110)

Total 38.5 (Over -250, Under +185)

Of course, these aren’t the lines most people are betting on. What you’ll see normally is the Patriots as a 3.5-point favorite, with a total of 44.5 point son the game. How can we be in a position where we can parlay a couple of props on the Monday night game and get prices on those props at the same time?

Let’s play around with the adjusted lines, which are also referred to as the "alternative" lines for purposes of our discussion. Most people are under the impression that this is going to be a close game, although opinions differ as to whether offense or defense is going to be the dominant factor.

On the one hand, the Jets have this fearsome "persona" perpetuated partly by some artful image-making, and that might give people the impression that its defense is better than it actually is. or is it every bit as good as Rex Ryan thinks it is?

Is he every bit as good as HE thinks he is? How does this apply to what we are going to do with our NFL parlay picks?

We’ll, I’m not sure, but the Jets have been pretty stiff against the run, allowing opponents to average just 3.4 yards a carry. And their defense has allowed more than a hundred yards less per game than the Patriots have.

You say you don’t believe that? Well, New York has permitted just 297 yards a game, while New England has yielded 399.

What does this translate to, for our purposes? Well, while the Jets may indeed lose by more than the posted number of 3.5 points, there is every reason to believe that they can keep the margin within reason.

That’s because they can run the ball with some degree of effectiveness, and they should be able to keep Tom Brady and his 105.8 passer rating from running away with things too much.

You don’t have to go that far back to see totals that are under 38.5 when these teams collide, and in some of those games the Jets did not have the defense they have now.

Three of the last six meetings have produced 30 points or less. Is it worth it to adjust the line downward six points, or does it make more sense, for purposes of our NFL parlay picks, to move it up seven points, where the price is +185 on the "over"?

Consider that the technical trends point to a higher scoring game than some might expect:

· New York has played eight of its last ten games OVER the total
· New York has played its last six road games OVER the total
· New England has played its last five games OVER the total
· New England has played five of its last six home games OVER the total

Over 51 might be our way to go here. At the same time, we notice that even in many of New England’s wins, they have not been the type to pull away all that much.

Yeah, the special teams flubs on the part of the Dolphins helped them, as did the second half ineptitude of a Detroit team that was playing with a quarterback who was hurt.

At the same time, we also realize that New England is playing its best all year on offense right now, and he hope that Mark Sanchez doesn’t go very cold as he has a few times this year. To make it interesting, we’re going with a parlay of the Pats minus the 7.5 points and over 51.5 in our NFL parlay picks for Monday.

NFL PARLAY PICKS:

New England -7.5 (+150)

Over 51.5 (+185)

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