NFL Odds – What’s Wrong with the New Orleans Saints?

Customers who are betting against the NFL odds are wondering what in the world is wrong with the New Orleans Saints, who just have not had their offense completely in sync this season. On Sunday the Saints are going to see if they can get that straightened out as they travel to face the revived Tampa Bay Buccaneers in an NFC contest that is slated for kickoff at 1 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium (natural turf) in Tampa. In the NFL odds for this game, the Saints are laying four points as the road favorite, with the total posted at 43 points.

New Orleans Saints (3-2 SU, 0-5 ATS) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1 SU & ATS)

Live at Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, FL
Sunday, October 17–  1 PM ET
TV:  Fox

NFL Odds:
New Orleans -4
Tampa Bay +4
Total 43

Here are some of the trends as they impact the NFL odds on this game:

• New Orleans has won 19 of its last 24 games SU
• New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last five games
• New Orleans has won ten of its last 12 road games SU
• New Orleans has covered one of its last six road games
• Tampa Bay has lost 18 of its last 24 games SU
• Tampa Bay has won five of its last seven games SU
• Tampa Bay has played nine of its last 11 games UNDER the total
• Tampa Bay has played four of its last five home games UNDER the total
• Tampa Bay has lost ten of its last 12 home games SU
• Tampa Bay has covered two of its last 13 home games

Key stats for New Orleans — Drew Brees has completed 71.4% of his passes this season, with nine touchdowns. The Saints’ leading rusher, Pierre Thomas, has 147 yards, but has been missing time with injuries, and this lack of balance may be one of the reasons the Saints haven’t covered a game against the NFL odds yet. Seven different New Orleans receivers have ten receptions or more and six different players have caught a touchdown pass. The Saints have 101 first downs, compared to 83 for the opposition. But they have been outgained by a wide margin on the ground, averaging 75.8 yards per game, compared to 118.6 by their opponents. The defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks ten times.

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Key stats for Tampa Bay — The Buccaneers have not been able to run the ball with a lot of authority. Cadillac Williams is the leading rusher, with 172 yards and 2.6 per attempt. Mike Williams, a rookie receiver, has caught three touchdown passes from Josh Freeman, who has completed 59.5% of his throws. Tampa Bay has been relatively stingy against passing attacks, holding foes to 55.8% completions, and they have nine interceptions in their four games. But the Bucs have only four QB sacks, and they are not likely to get very many against Brees, who gets rid of the ball quickly.

Here are the head-to-head betting trends as they involve the NFL odds on this game:

• Six of the last nine meetings have gone OVER the total
• Tampa Bay has won four of the last six meetings SU
• New Orleans has covered six of the last eight meetings as the road team

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On the ground, the Saints have turned for support to Chris Ivory, who’s averaged 4.1 yards a carry and I guess is wanted for assault in Seattle or something like that. They have also reached out for Julius Jones, who was cut by the Seahawks after the Marshawn Lynch trade. Why has this team failed to beat the NFL odds so far? Only 21% of New Orleans’ yardage has come on the ground, and that is the anti-thesis of balance. The fact that the Saints are a pass-first and pass-second team shouldn’t really be much of surprise, but this is a little extreme.

Obviously laying the points in the NFL odds with the Saints these days is a risky proposition because they have not covered a regular season games in their last nine tries. Last year Tampa Bay got walloped by a 38-7 count when the game counted, then came back to win at the Superdome after New Orleans had laid down for the final couple of games. What I sense here is that Tampa Bay is a team that is crying out for more balance than even New Orleans is, because at least the Saints can throw a "committee" out there if they want to; Tampa Bay’s second-leading rusher is Josh Freeman with 112 yards. In what has to be a small recommendation, we’ll hang with the Saints here, as a four-point favorite in the NFL odds.

JAY’S PLAY:  NEW ORLEANS -4 *

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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