NFL Odds on Patriots vs. Bills

The NFL odds on the game between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills this Sunday in Massachusetts pretty much signal to football handicappers that the Bills have absolutely no shot in the game.

None. Zero. Zilch. The odds makers have made the Pats such big favorites that unless you’re an absolutely huge New England fan, you have to look deep into the stats to justify the betting line.

NFL Betting odds against the spread don’t often times favor one team over the other at more than 10 or 10 ½ points.

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That’s not the case for this game. New England is favored by a whopping 14 ½ points to beat up on the Buffalo Bills on Sept. 26th.

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

When: Sept. 26th, 2010 at 1:00 pm EST

TV: CBS

Radio: Sirius – 129 (BUFF) 121 (NE)

NFL Betting Lines

Buffalo Bills +14 ½ -110 +650 O 42 ½ -110

New England Patriots -14 ½ -110 -900 U 42 ½ -110

The trends do favor the Patriots but not as much as some might think.

• The New England Patriots are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games following a straight up loss.
• The New England Patriots are 3 and 7 ATS in their last 10 games at home versus a team with a losing road record.
• The Buffalo Bills are 1 and 4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Underdog is 9 and 2 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams in Foxborough.

The Patriots can’t be feeling good about themselves after allowing the Jets to score 21 unanswered points in their 14 to 28 loss after they jumped out to a 14 to 7 lead. Now, they must play a team that they know they are better than.

That doesn’t always translate to a great performance in the NFL. New England didn’t exactly dominate Buffalo in 2009. They beat the Bills 17 to 10 the last time the two teams played and although the Pats covered the 6 ½ point spread, they barely covered.

The truth is that the Patriots’ D just isn’t that good of a unit. The Patriots are ranked 28th overall against the pass and 17th overall against the rush.

The unit, on paper, should be able to hold the horrible Buffalo Bills’ offense from putting up too many points against them, Buffalo has scored a total of 17 points in 2 games, and that’s one of the reasons that the Bills are one of the more popular NFL odds game predictions to fail ATS this Sunday, but is that enough of a reason to justify the better than 2 touchdown wagering spread?

I’m not sure if I’m ready to assume that the Patriots are going to blow out Buffalo. The Bills played terribly versus the Green Bay Packers in Week 2 when losing 34 to 7, but a QB switch to Ryan Fitzpatrick might actually help them this Sunday and they did hold their own against Miami in Week 1 in a 10 to 15 loss.

More importantly, the Bills’ offense faces the worst defense that’s it come up against so far this season.

Buffalo’s 16th ranked defense isn’t as bad as a lot of football handicappers believe, it’s certainly not bad enough for handicappers to make New England to cover the spread their best NFL odds prediction for this Sunday. New England is the better team and they will win the game, but their defense also gives up 111.5 yards per game on the ground and 270.5 yards per game in the air.

The Pats’ D made Mark Sanchez look like an All-Pro. Ryan Fitzpatrick won’t have to do nearly as well to keep this game within a 10-point margin. I have to take the points in this game. This is the NFL, not the WAC Conference in NCAAF. Buffalo is still a pro football team facing the worst defense it’s faced so far this season with three talented running backs ready to expose that D.

My NFL odds Sunday prediction is on Buffalo to cover the spread.

NFL Betting Pick: Buffalo Bills +14 ½ -110

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