NFL Odds Makers Don’t Believe in Da Bears

NFL odds makers obviously don’t believe in the Chicago Bears yet.  If they did, they wouldn’t have made Da Bears a 4-point dog in their away game versus the New York Giants on Oct. 3rd.

Chicago is one of only 3 undefeated teams left in the NFL.  The other two, the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers, play out of the AFC Conference.  Therefore, the Bears are the last remaining undefeated team in the NFC.

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Can they keep that undefeated streak going against the desperate for a victory New York Giants?  The NFL odds handicapping experts don’t believe so because Chicago is at +170 in the sportsbook to beat the G-Men straight up on Sunday.

Chicago Bears vs. New York Giants

Where:  New Meadowlands Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

When:  Oct. 3rd, 2010 at 8:20 pm EST

TV:  NBC

Radio:  Sirius – 125 (CHI) 126 (NYG)  

NFL Betting Lines

Chicago Bears                         +4 -110            +170    O 44 -110

New York Giants                    -4 -110             -210     U 44 -110

Based on the trends, both teams have a shot against the spread in this game.

• The Chicago Bears are 4 and 1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

• The Chicago Bears are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog on the road.

• The New York Giants are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.

• The New York Giants are 1 and 8 ATS versus a team with a winning record.

How many football handicappers had Da Bears on their NFL odds playoff prediction lists to start the season?  How many have them on their lists now?

I haven’t yet put Chicago on my list because it’s only the 4th Week of the season and to me the Bears were awfully lucky beating Green Bay in that game this past Monday night.  The Bears’ D wasn’t as stout as I thought it might be given the fact that Green Bay has absolutely no running game.

QB Aaron Rodgers still took the Bears’ secondary to school with 316 yards passing and a TD.  It’s important for football handicappers to recognize how well Rodgers did because unlike the Packers, the Giants do have an excellent rushing game.  New York averages 115 yards per game on the ground.  RB Ahmad Bradshaw, now firmly New York’s starter, has rushed for over 100 yards in 2 straight games.

Yes, the G-Men are coming off of 2 straight losses, but look at whom they lost to and it’s obvious that they were simply outclassed.  The Indianapolis Colts, who destroyed the Giants 38 to 14 in Week 2, is one of the Top 5 teams in the entire NFL right now.  The Tennessee Titans, who beat the Giants 29 to 10 in Week 3, capitalized on 3 New York turnovers and 11 New York penalties.  The Titans also were coming off of a heartbreaking loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 2.  They figured to bounce back.

The Bears figure to bounce the other way, towards the negative, when they hit the New Meadowlands turf on Sunday night.  Chicago is a good team, but they’ve been escaping like one of the Three Little Pigs, by the “hair of their chinny, chin, chins”.  A TD catch by Calvin Johnson was ruled incomplete in Chicago’s Week 1 game versus Detroit.  Chicago won 19 to 14.  In Week 2, Chicago caught a flat-footed Dallas Cowboys’ squad in a 27 to 20 victory.  In Week 3, Da Bears used a punt run back by Devin Hester and 18 Green Bay penalties to win 20 to 17.

I don’t see them getting any breaks this Sunday and neither do the NFL odds against the spread experts who have set a Giants -4 betting line.  NFL handicappers, at this point at least, don’t have faith in New York at all.  59% are taking Da Bears and the points in this game while only 41% are backing the G-Men.

I’m part of that 41%.  To me, Chicago is a good team that has escaped with victories against other good teams because they’ve gotten some awesome breaks.  New York, on the other hand, isn’t as bad as their current 1 and 2 record would indicate.

If the G-Men keep their penalties to a minimum and QB Eli Manning prevents himself from throwing picks, then the Giants should cover the spread on Sunday.  The Giants can push around Chicago’s beat up defensive line with RB Ahamad Bradshaw and open things up for their terrific pass catchers.

My NFL odds Sunday prediction in this game is that the New York Giants cover the 4-point spread.   

NFL Betting Pick:  New York Giants -4 -110

NFL odds are up in the sportsbook for all of Week 4’s games!

Sources:  espn.com, covers.com, tsn.com, nfl.com