NFL Odds Busters – Giants-Lions Will Reveal True Colors For Both Teams

The one thing we’ve learned about the Detroit Lions when playing the NFL odds this season is that they’re a litmus test type of team. What does that mean? I’ll explain, because it has big implications when betting a nerve wracking line of -10.0 which favors the New York Giants this weekend.

A friend of mine was peppering me about ATS records, as in how a team fares “against the spread”. He asked bluntly if oddsmakers factor a team’s ATS record during the season in to a betting line, and while I’m sure it weighs in to consideration at the basic level, the short answer is “no”.

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The reason is because it’s like golf: you don’t change your handicap because you’re playing below or above it, you change it because your end score is better or worse.

An ATS record reflects how a team is doing according to expectations. All NFL odds are generated on things like statistical trends on certain key players, historical relevance and complicated algorithms that would take a regular human being a hundred years of pain staking work to hammer out with a pen and paper.

Case in point is this game, where the Giants are 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS. That doesn’t mean they’re worse than we think, it means they’re about where we think they should be compared to the strength of their schedule.

Flip it around and you’ll see the Detroit Lions are 1-4 SU but 4-1 ATS. What does that tell us? Simply that the Lions are a bit better than we think they are at generating points and offensive yards. Things get even more interesting when you look at who the Lions have played this year.

Detroit Lions (1-4) vs. New York Giants (3-2)
Sunday, October 17th — Meadowlands Stadium — 1:00pm EST

NFL Odds:

New York Giants -10.0 (44)

In Week 1 against the Chicago Bears, the Lions lost both Stafford and a game to the Chicago Bears 14-19. After five weeks we know that the Bears are slightly better than we expected, but we’re still not giving them credit. A 5-point win to the Lions feels right for them.

The Lions have also cleared the NFL odds in losses to Green Bay and Philadelphia, two teams that are in the middle of the pack when it comes to Super Bowl contenders in our minds.

They also throttled the St. Louis Rams, which is one of the worst teams in the league. More appropriately, they gave up a win and their only spread loss to the Minnesota Vikings, a team which is far better than their 1-3 SU record would indicate.

This has relevance for their matchup as heavy road dogs against the New York Giants, a team that is fighting tooth and nail for respect as an NFC contender.

The NFL odds heavily favor the New York Giants as if they were contenders, which is exactly what we were saying about Philadelphia and Green Bay when they received similar NFL lines against Detroit.

New York has plastered the Bears and Texans in their past two games, allowing just 6.5 points against since being embarrassed by the Colts and Titans. Traditionally, they’re not a strong home team bet with a 3-6 ATS record in their last 9 efforts, though they’re 7-3 SU in their last 10 games.

Whether New York wins this game isn’t really important, however, if you’re betting the NFL odds.

Detroit may be just 3-6-2 ATS in their last 11 road games, but they’ve had a sneaky habit of covering in games this year and for all intents and purposes, Eli Manning should be able to post huge numbers against Detroit’s pilfering secondary.

What’s important for the NFL odds side of things is how New York’s defense fares. Detroit’s Calvin Johnson is a terrifying mismatch for any team, and Jahvid Best is running like the wind, making Detroit a cover team because they amass so many yards on any given day.

Do you think the New York Giants are legitimate NFC contenders? It’s a wide open race right now and if you believe that New York’s defense can rightfully contain Detroit, the NFL odds are much easier to choose. New York is the best pass defense team at home, something which will be tested by Calvin Johnson.

They’re also a decent rush defense at the Meadowlands, and Jahvid Best has been somewhat slowed down by partial turf toe.

I’ve been trying to grade and rate the Giants because they have +900 odds to win the NFC Championship, and I’m trying to figure out the value on that board. Their defense is strong with a great pass rush and their offense can put up points.

The big question is their offensive line and whether it can withstand a guy like Ndamukong Suh.

Until I see fully what their offensive line is capable of against a beast defensive line, I’m not so sure that the opportunities will be as widespread as people think.

I’m wagering on the Stafford-less Lions because I have yet to firmly believe the Giants are a contender right now, and their NFC odds of -10.0 are just too big for me to feel comfortable with, especially with Detroit coming off a 44-point performance.

Watch the offensive line for New York this weekend. They’re your gateway in to their NFL future. In the meantime, air on the side of caution and bet the NFL odds on Detroit.

Surprisingly, we know more about them than we concretely know about the Giants.

NFL Odds Buster – Detroit +10.0 (OVER)

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