NFL Odds – The Rebirth of Michael Vick?

Those who like to challenge the NFL betting lines witnessed what may have been the rebirth of Michael Vick last week in Philadelphia’s loss, and the question of everyone’s minds is whether that rebirth is going to continue this Sunday in Detroit, where the Lions are also going with a new starter at quarterback.

Those teams meet up at 1 PM ET at Ford Field (artificial turf) in the Motor City.

The Eagles are listed as a six-point road favorite in the NFL odds, with the total on the game posted at 41.5 points.

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Philadelphia Eagles (0-1 SU & ATS) at Detroit Lions (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS)

Live at Ford Field, Detroit

Sunday, September 19 — 1 PM ET

TV: Fox

NFL Odds:

Philadelphia -6

Detroit +6

Total 41.5

Kevin Kolb got off to a slow start last Sunday against the Packers, and then had to leave the game with a concussion. It was then that Michael Vick stepped in and lit a fire under the Philadelphia offense, as he led a rally that could have easily claimed victory for the Eagles, a home underdog in the NFL odds.

Kolb was not medically cleared to play this week, so Vick will get the start. Detroit is also going to have to turn to its backup, as Matthew Stafford injured his shoulder and has given way to Shaun Hill, who at one time was the starter in San Francisco before Alex Smith won his job back last season.

That injury to Stafford was, I guess, part of the double whammy. Hill came into the opening game against Chicago and threw what the team thought was the winning touchdown pass to Calvin Johnson, but as everyone who follows the game knows by now, Johnson was ruled not to have control of the ball in the end zone.

That everyone thinks they got robbed is but a hollow victory. The Lions, though, have made their point; they have come to play, though they are still at +4000 in the NFL odds to win the NFC North.

Here are some of the NFL trends as they impact our football betting prediction on this game:

• Philadelphia has covered one of its last five games
• Philadelphia has won six of its last nine games SU
• Detroit has covered three of its last 12 games
• Detroit has lost 13 of its last 14 games SU
• Detroit has played four of its last six home games OVER the total
• Detroit has lost 14 of its last 16 home games SU
• Detroit has covered one of its last five home games
• Philadelphia has won and covered the last five meetings

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Vick completed 16 of 24 passes against Green Bay, and had 103 yards rushing last week. Listen – there are a lot of things he can bring to the table, including his mobility, which is virtually unrivaled among quarterbacks in the NFL.

However, let’s keep a couple of things in mind as we analyze the NFL odds – that Vick was brought aboard with the Eagles to be a "package" quarterback, working formations like the Wildcat, and also that the one time he was very unhappy in his career was when Jim Mora Jr. installed the West Coast offense, which Vick just didn’t take to.

In case you are a newcomer to football, Andy Reid, the Eagles’ coach, runs the West Coast offense, and is an old disciple of Bill Walsh. What we’re trying to say is that it’s one thing to step in an improvisation, but it might be quite another to be the starter and have to fit into a scheme that is established.

Hill is more limited in what he can do than Stafford, and the Lions’ offense may suffer in the long run if they can’t develop a running game behind Jahvid Best and do it fast. However, Detroit players are voicing a lot of support for him. Nate Burleson, who starts at wide receiver opposite Johnson, says that “If anything, I think we’ll be more aggressive against Philly than we were at Chicago.”

Hill did win ten of his 16 starts while with the Niners. If I was leaning toward the Eagles in the NFL odds, I would be worried about some of the other injuries, particularly center Jamal Jackson, on an offensive line that already had a few issues.

Let’s see if this might be a breakout game for Ndamukong Suh in the middle of that Lion defensive front. I’m looking for a Detroit team that has a renewed attitude under coach Jim Schwartz doing enough to keep this game close and competitive under their own roof. On our football betting prediction, we’ll take the Lions plus the points in the NFL odds for Sunday.

JAY’S PLAY: DETROIT +6 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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