NFL Odds – Steelers and Bucs Surprise with 2-0 Starts

Customers who like to challenge the NFL odds know that two of the teams who have surprised an awful lot of people with 2-0 starts this season are the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Well, on Sunday, someone’s "0" has got to go, as the Steelers and Bucs meet up at Raymond James Stadium (natural turf) in Tampa, with game time at 1 PM ET on CBS. In the NFL odds, the Steelers are a three-point road favorite, with the over-under listed at 33 points, which is the lowest total of the week in the NFL.

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0 SU & ATS) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0 SU & ATS)

Live at Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, FL
Sunday, September 26 –  1 PM ET
TV: CBS

NFL Odds:
Pittsburgh -3
Tampa Bay +3
Total  33

Here are some of the trends as they impact the NFL odds on this game:

• Pittsburgh has won its last five games SU
• Tampa Bay has lost 17 of its last 22 games SU
• Tampa Bay has won four of its last five games SU
• Tampa Bay has played its last nine games UNDER the total
• Tampa Bay has played five of its last six home games UNDER the total
• Tampa Bay has lost nine of its last 11 home games SU
• Tampa Bay has covered two of its last 12 home games

There’s quite a bit to say about the Steelers, but to explore anything with relation to an evaluation of the NFL odds, the question must be answered as to what is going to happen with the quarterback situation this week. The Steelers had cut Byron Leftwich, with the intention of re-signing him Monday. Then Dennis Dixon hurt his knee against Tennessee, and Charlie Batch was pressed into action. Batch was five-for-11 for 25 yards and was sacked twice. He’ll get the start here, as Leftwich has a sore knee. If Batch can’t do the job, Pittsburgh could be in some trouble over the next couple of weeks, before Ben Roethlisberger returns.

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In the NFL odds, the Bucs are a home underdog, and the reason for that would appear to be that people don’t believe in them that much yet. After all, they have been involved with two winnable games, and happened to win them both. But you can’t mistake the fact that they’ve played pretty well. They have gotten more than they’ve expected out of rookie receiver Mike Williams, they’ve got Kellen Winslow Jr. in the lineup and healthy, and Josh Freeman (4 TD’s, one INT) may just be in the process of maturing. One concern is the thin backfield, and with Cadillac Williams at 2.6 yards a carry, this running attack has to reach a higher level. Remember what the Steelers did to Chris Johnson last week, however (34 yards on 16 carries).

Here are the head-to-head trends as they affect our evaluation of the NFL odds in this game:

• Four of the last five meetings have gone UNDER the total
• Pittsburgh has covered four of the last five meetings
• Pittsburgh has won six of the last seven meetings SU
• Pittsburgh has won four of the last five meetings SU as the road team

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Pittsburgh has intercepted four passes and held the opposition to 2.2 yards a rush and twenty total points. Those are incredibly impressive numbers, and the Steelers have had to be that good to start this season with a 2-0 record. Of course, if all anyone ever had to do to win against the NFL odds was handicap on the form of the last couple of weeks, it would be a lot easier to do. There is much more nuance involved, so we look beyond the surface.

One of the things we think about as we handicap the NFL odds is that the Steelers have scored only one offensive touchdown in their two games, and that was the 50-yard scamper by Rashard Mendenhall to win the season opener in overtime. On the rest of his carries, Mendenhall has averaged less than 3.2 yards. Batch may be "shot" as a quarterback; we don’t know that because he has not seen a lot of meaningful action in a while; in fact, he hasn’t thrown more than 53 passes in any one SEASON since 2001 (with Detroit). Batch obviously has more experience over the course of his career than Dixon, but he doesn’t have the ability to create something out of nothing the way Dixon did. It’s hard to win like Pittsburgh is – without much offense – for three weeks in a row. Let’s also not forget that Tampa Bay has a more active defensive line now, and one of the new faces is rookie Gerald McCoy.

I never thought I would say this, but it could possibly be that at this point in time, the team with more offensive capability is the home underdog, Tampa Bay. hey, we know Pittsburgh is the better team, but betting against the NFL odds isn’t always about who is the better team, but who is in the right situation at the right time and at the right number. I’m not sure the Steelers are in a position to be pulling away from anyone, and so I would rather be "on the take" in a game like this. We’ll go with the Bucs, catching a field goal in the NFL odds for Sunday.

JAY’S PLAY:  TAMPA BAY +3 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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