NFL Odds – Lions Lay Five Points to Buffalo

NFL odds bettors who are interested in preseason games might want to cast their eyes on Ford Field on Thursday, as the Detroit Lions are laying five points to the Buffalo Bills in the preseason finale for both times. This is probably a rare occasion where the Lions are this much of a favorite, unless they can make great strides under coach Jim Schwartz this season. In the NFL odds, the total on the game is 38.5 points, and each of these teams almost exceeded that on their own last week.

Buffalo Bills (2-1 SU & ATS) at Detroit Lions (2-1 SU & ATS)
Live at Ford Field
Thursday, September 2 — 6:30 PM ET
TV: WWJ Detroit, WKBW Buffalo

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NFL Odds:
Detroit -5
Buffalo +5
Total 38.5

The Detroit Lions, looking to defy many of the NFL betting predictions about their fate this year, looked sharp last time out against Cleveland, scoring 35 points, rushing for 154 yards and going a perfect four-for-four in their opportunities in the red zone. Matthew Stafford was 13 for 17 before giving way to Shaun Hill, and Jahvid Best had one carry that went for 51 yards. Neither Stafford nor Best can be expected to play much here, but the Bills, who have seen what they wanted to see out of rookie C.J. Spiller, may give Marshawn Lynch some significant playing time here.

Meanwhile, if the Lions are thinking that Best provides them with a strong option as the featured back, that could make Kevin Smith expendable, and coach Jim Schwartz has said as much. Consequently, this could be a critical game for him. The knee he had surgery may not be trustworthy enough at this time.

Here are some of the trends as they impact the NFL odds on this game:

• Buffalo has lost four of its last six games SU
• Buffalo has covered two of its last six games
• Buffalo has played six of its last eight games OVER the total
• Buffalo has lost four of its last five road games SU
• Detroit has won four of its last five games SU
• Detroit has played four of its last six games UNDER the total
• Detroit has won its last five home games SU

The last three years these teams have played very low-scoring games in the preseason finale. The Bills have been especially non-threatening, tallying six points in each of the last two meetings. Let me give you a little cue here that might impact these NFL odds – it galls Bills’ owner Ralph Wilson to lose to the Lions. You see, once upon a time, before the AFL, Wilson, who grew up Detroit, used to own a piece of the Lions franchise. He is very hands-on for a guy 91 years old, and last year he got so worked up by his team’s offensive failure against Detroit that he ordered the firing of Turk Schonert, who was the coordinator of that unit.

Plus, there is an honest-to-goodness quarterback competition going on in Buffalo, maybe not so much for the first-string job that apparently belongs to Trent Edwards but for the second-team position, where Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brian Brohm are both capable of filling that role. Plus, there have been rumors that Matt Leinart could be on his way to the Bills in a deal (something they deny). Inasmuch as Buffalo is +2500 in the NFL odds to win its division, it is expected that Edwards could melt down at some point, so there could be a job up for grabs at some point. The Bills have responded with 86 points in three games, with all of them going over the total, and I don’t see anyone getting fired just yet. Brohm, who threw only one pass against Cincinnati, will get a chance here.

If we’re talking about trends in the NFL odds, they would seem to be in favor of the Lions, who have won their last five preseason games at Ford Field. This is a franchise that is also in that mode where they want to win preseason games in order to give some encouragement to the fans (who haven’t caught on to that yet). When making NFL betting predictions you want to consider the motivation level of the teams, and I don’t see either team lacking there. When it comes down to it, in a game that may not be so super-charged offensively, the points here may be a gift, so we’re on the "take" with the Buffalo Bills in the NFL odds for Thursday.

JAY’S NFL BETTING PREDICTION: BUFFALO +5 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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