NFL Odds – Jacksonville vs Buffalo

Those who like to challenge the NFL odds are under the full understanding that the Buffalo Bills are desperate to end the tailspin that has them winless in four games this season. On Sunday the Bills will play host to the Jacksonville Jaguars in action that is set to begin at 1 PM ET at Ralph Wilson Stadium (artificial turf) in Orchard Park, NY. In the NFL odds for this particular contest, the game is listed as a pick’em, with the over-under on the game established at 41 points.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2 SU & ATS) at Buffalo Bills (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS)

Live at Ralph Wilson Stadium
Orchard Park, NY
Sunday, October 10 –  1 PM ET
TV:  CBS

NFL Odds:
Pick’em
Total 41

Here are some of the trends as they impact the NFL odds on this game:

• Jacksonville has lost six of its last eight games SU
• Jacksonville has covered two of its last eight games
• Jacksonville has lost six of its last seven road games SU
• Jacksonville has covered one of its last seven road games
• Jacksonville has played eight of its last 12 road games UNDER the total
• Buffalo has played 11 of its last 16 games UNDER the total
• Buffalo has lost six of its last seven games SU
• Buffalo has covered two of its last seven games
• Buffalo has played nine of its last 13 home games UNDER the total
• Buffalo has lost four of its last five home games SU

Key stats for Jacksonville — The Jaguars have gotten back to the ground game, rushing for 313 yards in the last two games. David Garrard has been intercepted five times and has been sacked ten games. The Jags have been outgained by an average of 139 yards through the air per game this season. The opposition has moved for 9.15 yards per pass attempt.

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Key stats for Buffalo — The Bills are allowing 174 yards per game on the ground, which will never improve a team’s chances in the NFL odds. Buffalo is averaging a little less than 25 minutes per game in possession time, and that is a lot of pressure on a defense that has allowed eight touchdown passes without making an interception. The Bills have averaged 4.7 yards per rush, but the leading rusher on the team, now that Marshawn Lynch has been traded (to Seattle), is quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick (92 yards on ten carries).

Here are the head-to-head betting trends as they involve the NFL odds:

• Buffalo has covered six of the last eight meetings
• Six of the last nine meetings have gone UNDER the total

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With the Bills, it’s either one extreme problem or another. The offensive woes were so obvious early on that it led to the benching and subsequent release of Trent Edwards (who is on the other sideline on Sunday). but now the defense has stopped showing up for games. Two weeks ago the Patriots rambled for 200 yards on the ground against Buffalo’s porous defensive front. Last week, in the process of easily covering with the NFL odds, the Jets registered a major humiliation with 273. When you can’t cause any turnovers, then the whole thing doesn’t work. And this promises to be an elixir for what has been ailing Garrard (at least most of the time) as well as providing something very inviting for Maurice Jones-Drew and coach Jack Del Rio’s preferred game plan.

When you are outgained by almost 150 yards a game, have 54 first downs in four games (that’s an average of 13.5 per contest), and allow the opposition to convert on 51% of third downs, you’ve got issues that quarterback switches won’t solve, and issues that won’t get many covers in the NFL odds. We talked before the season about how the Bills may have been making a very big mistake when the made the decision to hire the very stale Chan Gailey.

Now, I wonder whether Gailey, who was fired BEFORE the season opener last year from his job as offensive coordinator of the Kansas City Chiefs, will last more than a week or two. Maybe GM Buddy Nix should go with him. And the Jags have been nice enough to sign Edwards so they can get some insight as to Buffalo’s limited game plans. The NFL has been worried about the Jacksonville franchise because the Jags have let a lot of home games get blacked out. In an ironic twist, after 26 straight sellouts, the Bills haven’t sold enough tickets and this game will be blacked out too. Well, this team has blacked out often enough on the field. We’re willing to pay to find out when they’ll start playing. It’s the Jags at pick’em in the NFL odds for Sunday.

JAY’S PLAY:  JACKSONVILLE pick’em **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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