NFL Odds – Dolphins Tough to Beat in the Heat

Those who take their chances against the NFL odds know that the Miami Dolphins can be a difficult team to beat early in the season at home, because of the Florida heat.

On Monday night they are going to be playing host to the New England Patriots in action that is scheduled to kick off at 8:30 PM ET at the ballpark that is currently known as Sun Life Stadium (natural turf) in Miami Gardens, FL.

In the NFL odds for this game, the Pats are a one-point favorite, with the over-under on the game posted at 48 points.

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New England Patriots (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (2-1 SU & ATS)

Live at Sun Life Stadium
Miami Gardens, FL
Monday, October 4 — 8:30 PM ET
TV: ESPN

NFL Odds:

New England -1
Miami +1
Total 48

Here are some of the trends as they concern the NFL odds on this game:

• New England has covered three of its last ten games
• New England has played its last five games OVER the total
• New England has won 16 of its last 24 games SU
• New England has lost five of its last six road games SU
• New England is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five road games
• New England has played seven of its last ten road games UNDER the total
• Miami has lost four of its last six games SU
• Miami has played seven of its last nine home games OVER the total
• Miami has lost four of its last six home games SU

The Dolphins, who have won two of three in the NFL odds, have been involved in low-scoring games thus far, averaging 17.3 points and allowing 17 points.

New England, on the other hand, has scored 30 points a game (which is the top figure overall) and surrendered 27.3 points. The Patriots have achieved a certain amount of balance in their offense, but not a whole lot, rushing for 123.3 yards a game.

There is no comparison between the experience level of the quarterbacks in this game. Tom Brady (67%, 8 TD’s) is, well, Tom Brady. Chad Henne is kind of a work in progress, who has been intercepted only once in 93 attempts. He has already made a connection, however, with newcomer Brandon Marshall, who has hauled in 22 passes for 290 yards.

As usual, the Dolphins feel their best chance against the NFL odds is to go to the run first, and even though they are averaging only 3.8 yards as a team, they are going to keep pounding away.

Here are the head-to-head betting trends as they involve the NFL odds on this game:

• New England has won four of the last six meetings SU
• New England has covered one of the last five meetings
• MIA has won 15 of the last 21 meetings SU as the home team

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New England’s dynamic as far as the passing game has changed just a little, and any analysis of the NFL odds has to take this into account. Randy Moss has caught only nine passes, and he will offer a very stiff challenge to one of the Miami corners, most likely Vontae Davis, Wes Welker, who had knee surgery in the off-season, has picked up where he left off as the guy who catches everything Brady throws in short-range situations (18 receptions, 8.2 yards per catch).

Rookie Aaron Hernandez is the coming star at tight end. He’s got a better average than any of the Pats’ receivers (16.2) and can run with it too. Fred Taylor won’t be available here, so it’s going to be BenJarvus Green-Ellis for most of the route.

The Dolphins are a slight underdog in the NFL odds. We know that the way the Miami running game is constructed, with two capable backs and a Wildcat formation, there is a distinct possibility that they are going to move the ball against anybody. That can chew clock, but what it could also do is set things up for Henne to connect with Marshall.

I think that Davis can play sufficiently well for Miami, but Jason Allen is looking like a liability on the other side, and he has trauma when facing Moss. Maybe we get a lot more of the air game, too, from Brady, for purposes of preserving his only healthy running back. This has a chance to be very wide-open, though we’re a little careful because the number is high. We’re going OVER in this game, which is posted at 48 points in the NFL odds for Monday night.

JAY’S PLAY: OVER 48 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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